Q10 Management Discussion and Analysis
06 August 2010
internet connectivity. For 1H10, data revenue grew 36% YoY and represented 17%
of service revenue, excluidng IC. The full year guidance of data growth is
hence revised up to 25-30% from 20%. We continue to witness an increasing
number of active subscribers, as well as higher usage per subscriber. Key
drivers are a continued and developing trend in online/mobile social
networking, limited availability of landline internet access, and a continued
reduction in device costs.
Company revised up free cash flow (EBITDA - CAPEX) growth to 18% from 12% due
to a stronger revenue outlook. Capex guidance remains at Bt6.2bn versus
Bt9.9bn in FY09. This level of capex is to mainly serve higher data capacity
to capture the growth momentum. EBITDA margin has been revised up to 45% from
44%, due to stronger revenue and lower marketing spending. Other costs should
remain in-line with previous guidance. The Company is committed to
maintaining its relative cost efficiency within the rest of the industry. Net
interconnection revenue is also expected to be lower in a range of 100-200m,
compared to 1H10 net receipt of 66m.
Handset sales are expected to show some improvement following strong sales of
smart phones, Blackberry and data cards, which also produce better margins.
However, the margin trend for these items is declining. The handset business
remains vital to support overall strategy for AIS on growing our mobile
service and to support the future launch of the 3G service.
3G-2.1GHz license timeline is progressing with the National Telecommunications
Commission (NTC)'s publication of criteria and procedure for spectrum
licensing for IMT mobile phone service in the frequency band of 2.1GHz in the
Royal Gazette in late July. The auction is assumed to start sometime in
September 2010.
Capital management will only be considered once the Company has a clearer view
on the timeline of the potential 3G license on 2.1GHz which would effect the
long-term capex plan and future cash needs. Meanwhile, AIS continues to
maintain its strength in low gearing, relative to the industry, and to provide
a flexible competitive capability for future investment.
OPERATIONAL DATA
Subscribers 2Q09 1Q10 2Q10
GSM Advance 2,672,200 2,878,500 2,898,800
GSM 1800 78,300 78,300 78,400
Postpaid 2,750,500 2,956,800 2,977,200
Prepaid 25,151,500 26,552,400 27,030,500
Total subscribers 27,902,000 29,509,200 30,007,700
Net additions
Postpaid 87,300 42,100 20,400
Prepaid 232,900 694,200 478,100
Total net additions 320,200 736,300 498,500
Churn rate (%)
Postpaid 2.0% 2.3% 2.2%
Prepaid 4.9% 4.7% 4.7%
Blended 4.7% 4.4% 4.5%
Subscriber market share
Postpaid 41% 43% N/A
Prepaid 44% 44% N/A
Total 44% 44% N/A
ARPU excl. IC (Bt)
GSM Advance 645 657 654
GSM 1800 631 610 596
Postpaid 645 655 652
Prepaid 188 193 185
Blended 232 240 232
ARPU incl. net IC (Bt)
GSM Advance 605 617 614
GSM 1800 615 593 578
Postpaid 605 617 613
Prepaid 196 198 190
Blended 236 240 232
MOU (minutes: billable outgoing)
GSM Advance 529 524 509
GSM 1800 470 483 476
Postpaid 527 523 508
Prepaid 239 263 273
Blended 267 289 297
Traffic
% outgoing to total minute 48% 48% 47%
% on-net to total outgoing 78% 80% 80%
Disclaimer
"Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements,
which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements
with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other
statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified
by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" , "expect" ,
"anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar
words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs
in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions
involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results,
performance or achievements to be materially different from any future
results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements.