Q10 Management Discussion and Analysis

06 สิงหาคม 2553
internet connectivity. For 1H10, data revenue grew 36% YoY and represented 17% of service revenue, excluidng IC. The full year guidance of data growth is hence revised up to 25-30% from 20%. We continue to witness an increasing number of active subscribers, as well as higher usage per subscriber. Key drivers are a continued and developing trend in online/mobile social networking, limited availability of landline internet access, and a continued reduction in device costs. Company revised up free cash flow (EBITDA - CAPEX) growth to 18% from 12% due to a stronger revenue outlook. Capex guidance remains at Bt6.2bn versus Bt9.9bn in FY09. This level of capex is to mainly serve higher data capacity to capture the growth momentum. EBITDA margin has been revised up to 45% from 44%, due to stronger revenue and lower marketing spending. Other costs should remain in-line with previous guidance. The Company is committed to maintaining its relative cost efficiency within the rest of the industry. Net interconnection revenue is also expected to be lower in a range of 100-200m, compared to 1H10 net receipt of 66m. Handset sales are expected to show some improvement following strong sales of smart phones, Blackberry and data cards, which also produce better margins. However, the margin trend for these items is declining. The handset business remains vital to support overall strategy for AIS on growing our mobile service and to support the future launch of the 3G service. 3G-2.1GHz license timeline is progressing with the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC)'s publication of criteria and procedure for spectrum licensing for IMT mobile phone service in the frequency band of 2.1GHz in the Royal Gazette in late July. The auction is assumed to start sometime in September 2010. Capital management will only be considered once the Company has a clearer view on the timeline of the potential 3G license on 2.1GHz which would effect the long-term capex plan and future cash needs. Meanwhile, AIS continues to maintain its strength in low gearing, relative to the industry, and to provide a flexible competitive capability for future investment. OPERATIONAL DATA Subscribers 2Q09 1Q10 2Q10 GSM Advance 2,672,200 2,878,500 2,898,800 GSM 1800 78,300 78,300 78,400 Postpaid 2,750,500 2,956,800 2,977,200 Prepaid 25,151,500 26,552,400 27,030,500 Total subscribers 27,902,000 29,509,200 30,007,700 Net additions Postpaid 87,300 42,100 20,400 Prepaid 232,900 694,200 478,100 Total net additions 320,200 736,300 498,500 Churn rate (%) Postpaid 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% Prepaid 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% Blended 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% Subscriber market share Postpaid 41% 43% N/A Prepaid 44% 44% N/A Total 44% 44% N/A ARPU excl. IC (Bt) GSM Advance 645 657 654 GSM 1800 631 610 596 Postpaid 645 655 652 Prepaid 188 193 185 Blended 232 240 232 ARPU incl. net IC (Bt) GSM Advance 605 617 614 GSM 1800 615 593 578 Postpaid 605 617 613 Prepaid 196 198 190 Blended 236 240 232 MOU (minutes: billable outgoing) GSM Advance 529 524 509 GSM 1800 470 483 476 Postpaid 527 523 508 Prepaid 239 263 273 Blended 267 289 297 Traffic % outgoing to total minute 48% 48% 47% % on-net to total outgoing 78% 80% 80% Disclaimer "Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" , "expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.