anagement Discussion & Analysis 1Q08

14 May 2008
Total cost (18,399)-64.2% (14,293) -60.8% (28,752) -72.1% 28.7 -36.0 Gross profit 10,249 35.8% 9,206 39.2% 11,118 27.9% 11.3 -7.8 SG&A (2,585) -9.0% (3,126) -13.3% (3,382) -8.5% -17.3 -23.6 Directors' remuneration (3) 0.0% (2) 0.0% (4) 0.0% 55.2 -19.1 Operating profit 7,661 26.7% 6,077 25.9% 7,733 19.4% 26.1 -0.9 Interest expense (374) -1.3% (448) -1.9% (427) -1.1% -16.4 -12.5 Other income 192 0.7% 201 0.9% 163 0.4% -4.5 17.4 Exchange gain/(Loss) (134) -0.5% (9) 0.0% (28) -0.1% 1,325.6 379.1 EBT 7,344 25.6% 5,821 24.8% 7,441 18.7% 26.2 -1.3 Minority interest (21) -0.1% 16 0.1% 22 0.1%-232.7-199.6 Corporate tax (2,199) -7.7% (1,854) -7.9% (2,330) -5.8% 18.6 -5.6 Net income 5,124 17.9% 3,984 17.0% 5,132 12.9% 28.6 -0.2 Revenue and cost breakdown Service revenue excl. IC 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Basic voice GSM Advance 23.4% 22.6% 21.0% 21.3% 22.5% 22.5% 20.6% 18.5% 17.0% GSM 1800 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% Postpaid 25.0% 24.1% 22.3% 22.6% 23.5% 23.5% 21.5% 19.3% 17.7% Prepaid 59.7% 59.1% 60.4% 58.4% 56.3% 57.6% 59.1% 59.5% 58.5% Non-voice Postpaid 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% Prepaid 5.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.6% 6.9% 7.3% International roaming 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 5.1% 5.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.4% Others (IDD, other fees) 2.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.2% 3.9% 4.4% 5.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Sales revenue 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Handset 92.4% 92.1% 95.8% 93.0% 93.7% 93.4% 94.7% 95.2% 95.0% SIM 7.6% 7.9% 4.2% 7.0% 6.3% 6.6% 5.3% 4.8% 5.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%100.0% Cost of service excl. IC 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Amortization 71.5% 71.2% 67.4% 68.3% 67.3% 68.4% 68.7% 69.2% 68.8% Base station - rental & utility 7.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 9.3% 9.2% 9.6% Maintenance 8.6% 7.7% 8.8% 8.3% 8.0% 7.3% 7.8% 7.6% 6.7% Others 12.0% 12.0% 14.7% 13.8% 15.1% 14.5% 14.2% 14.0% 14.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0 100.0% Cost of sales 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Handsets 98.1% 97.7% 98.5% 97.6% 97.6% 97.1% 96.9% 97.6% 97.6% SIM 1.9% 2.3% 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%100.0% Consolidated balance sheet Bt. million 1Q08 % of total 4Q07 % of total asset asset Current Assets 26,450 19.9% 20,586 16.0% Property and Equipment 8,265 6.2% 8,561 6.6% Networks under Concession 76,432 57.6% 78,527 60.9% Intangible asset 10,467 7.9% 10,593 8.2% Defer tax asset 10,077 7.6% 10,031 7.8% Others 989 0.7% 644 0.5% Total Assets 132,680 100.0% 128,942 100.0% ST loan from financial institution - - 3,492 2.7% Account Payable-trade 4,156 3.1% 4,218 3.3% Current Portion of LT Debt 3,991 3.0% 1,545 1.2% Current Portion of Concession 9,720 7.3% 8,373 6.5% Long-term Debt 22,225 16.8% 25,312 19.6% Other Liabilities 11,845 8.9% 10,541 8.2% Total Liabilities 51,937 39.1% 53,481 41.5% Total Equity 80,743 60.9% 75,461 58.5% Key ratios 1Q08 1Q07 4Q07 EBITDA (Bt. million) 12,280 10,500 12,698 EBITDA margin 42.9% 44.7% 31.8% Interest coverage (x) 20.5 13.6 18.1 DSCR (x) 6.3 5.5 5.3 Net debt / EBITDA (x) 0.23 0.36 0.43 Net debt / Equity (%) 14% 19% 29% Interest-bearing debt to Equity (x) 0.32 0.35 0.40 Total liabilities to Equity (x) 0.64 0.69 0.71 Free cash flow to EV (%) 10.4% 6.8% 8.9% ROE (%) 26% 20% 28% OPERATIONAL DATA Subscribers 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 GSM Advance 1,797,100 1,868,200 2,143,700 2,534,700 2,566,300 2,349,300 2,203,500 2,243,100 GSM 1800 114,800 105,400 98,700 92,000 86,800 82,600 82,400 81,400 Postpaid 1,911,900 1,973,600 2,242,400 2,626,700 2,653,100 2,431,900 2,285,900 2,324,500 Prepaid 15,406,00015,749,50017,279,10018,462,60020,038,30020,772,50021,819,50022,762,800 Total subscribers 17,317,90017,723,10019,521,50021,089,30022,691,40023,204,40024,105,40025,087,300 Net additions 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Postpaid -6,100 61,700 268,800 384,300 26,400 -221,200 -146,000 38,600 Prepaid 690,100 343,5001,529,6001,183,5001,575,700 734,200 1,047,000 943,300 Total net additions 684,000 405,2001,798,40 1,567,8001,602,100 513,000 901,000 981,900 Churn rate (%) 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Postpaid 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 2.5% 3.9% 4.8% 4.7% 1.9% Prepaid 2.8% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% Blended 2.6% 2.9% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% Subscriber market share 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 Postpaid 41% 41% 43% 44% 44% 42% 41% n/a Prepaid 52% 50% 50% 50% 49% 47% 46% n/a Total 51% 48% 49% 49% 48% 46% 46% n/a *new ARPU excl. IC (Bt: net all-in) 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 GSM Advance 964 876 845 811 741 696 744 757 GSM 1800 815 805 806 781 773 760 739 730 Postpaid 955 872 843 809 742 698 743 756 Prepaid 286 277 262 249 234 222 227 231 Blended 362 343 328 317 295 274 279 280 *new ARPU incl. net IC (Bt: net all-in) 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 GSM Advance n/a n/a n/a 788 708 665 696 708 GSM 1800 n/a n/a n/a 781 773 760 739 730 Postpaid n/a n/a n/a 787 710 668 698 708 Prepaid n/a n/a n/a 263 258 233 238 237 Blended n/a n/a n/a 326 312 282 283 282 MOU (minutes: outgoing only) 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 GSM Advance 521 559 550 587 504 511 573 594 GSM 1800 418 418 426 412 416 422 426 476 Postpaid 515 551 544 580 501 507 568 589 Prepaid 303 229 214 228 218 224 239 260 Blended 327 265 251 270 252 256 271 290 Traffic 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 % outgoing to total minute n/a n/a n/a 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% % on-net to total outgoing minute n/a n/a n/a 56% 63% 68% 70% 71% * From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU is based on new definition (net all-in) only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" is discontinued. QUARTERLY REVIEW OF TARIFF PLANS Prepaid plans for new subscription Aow Pai Leoy Bt3, 1/min - 6pm-10pm: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter - 10pm-6pm: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter Sawasdee - Bt2/minute for on-net, Bt4/minute for off-net - Cost of SIM: Bt110, 1-year validity Sawasdee North East - Call made in northeast area: Bt1/minute - Call made outside of northeast area: Bt2/minute on-net, Bt4/minute off-net - Cost of SIM: Bt110, 1-year validity Moo-Hou - Call made in northeast area : On-net: Bt2 for the first minute and Bt0.50/minute thereafter Off-net: Bt2 for the first minute and Bt1/minute thereafter - Call made outside of northeast area: Bt2/minute on-net, Bt4/minute off-net - Cost of SIM: Bt50, Validity: Bt100 for 30 days Sawasdee SIM Mae Yok - Bt2 per minute to all networks - Cost of SIM: Bt50, Validity: Bt100 for 30 days Sawasdee Nan Nan - Bt2.50 to all networks - Cost of SIM: Bt50, 1-year validity SIM Fifty - Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter - Cost of SIM: Bt50 SIM Fifty North - Call made in northern area: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter - Call made outside of northern area: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Mini SIM - Bt1.50 to all networks - Cost of SIM: Bt20 * Remark: Mini SIM is offered for limited amounts and to selected subscribers only Day SIM 6am-6pm: Bt0.50/minute - 6pm-6am: Bt2/minute - Cost of SIM: Bt99, Validity: Bt300 for 30 days Night SIM - 10pm-10am: Bt0.50/minute - 10am-10pm: Bt2/minute - Cost of SIM: Bt49, Validity: Bt300 for 30 days Prepaid plans for existing subscribers Flexi - Call more than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt5 for the first minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter - Call less than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter - Monthly charge: Bt30 Short Call - Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Long Call - Bt5 for the first minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter Day Call - Bt199/month for unlimited on-net between 5am-5pm - 5pm-5am & Off-net: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter Night Call - Bt159/month for unlimited on-net between 10pm-10am - 10am-10pm& off-net: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter SMS Lover - Bt99/month for 500 SMS - Call charge: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Postpaid plans for new subscription GSM 99/month - Bt1.50/minute to all networks - Call 1 hour pay only 5 minutes, free call on 6th-60th minute for each call GSM buffet 159/month Monthly fee: Bt159 For On-net - 5am-5pm: Free call for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour tariff at Bt1/minute - 5pm-5am: Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter For off-net - Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter GSM buffet 199/month Monthly fee: Bt199 For On-net - 5am-5pm: Free call for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour tariff at Bt1/minute - 5pm-5am: Bt1.50/minute For off-net - Bt1.50/minute Postpaid plans for existing subscribers GSM buffet 299/month Monthly fee: Bt299 For On-net - 11pm-5pm: Free call for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour tariff at Bt1/minute - 5pm-11pm: Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter For off-net - Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter GSM Night Call 299/month Monthly fee: Bt299 - 11pm-5pm: Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt0.50/minute thereafter - 5pm-11pm: Free call any network 30 minutes/day, exceed 30 minutes tariff at Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt0.50/minute thereafter GSM Tam Jai - Bt250/month, free call 200 minutes - Bt500/month, free call 400 minutes - Bt750/month, free call 600 minutes - Bt1,000/month, free call 800 minutes - Exceed call tariff at Bt1.50/minute ARPU DEFINITION In accordance with the international practice, we have adjusted ARPU disclosure to better reflect all revenues generated from the mobile network. We believe the new definition should provide a more transparent representation of our reported service revenue and maintain the conservative approach of recognizing revenue on the net basis. The revenue items included in the calculation of ARPU figures are based on consolidated revenue according to the Thai accounting standard. The ARPU definition is outlined accordingly. ARPU (All-in) exclude IC Definition Consolidated service revenue excluding international call revenue from AIN and interconnection revenue divided by average of subscribers at the beginning and ending period. = Service revenue - AIN revenue - Gross ICrevenue/ (beg.sub + end.sub) / 2 Revenue composition - Voice - Value-added service (call management,SMS, MMS, data) - International roaming - International cal via CAT, TOT - Others Not include - Net interconnection revenue - International call via AIN (AIS subsidiary) All categories are net of third -party sharing and commission ARPU (All-in) include IC Definition Consolidated service revenue excluding international call revenue from AIN divided by average of subscribers at the beginning and ending period. = Service revenue - AIN revenue - Gross IC revenue + Net IC/ (beg.sub + end.sub) / 2 Revenue composition - Voice - Value-added service (call management,SMS, MMS, data) - International roaming - International cal via CAT, TOT - Others - Net interconnection revenue Not include - International call via AIN (AIS subsidiary) All categories are net of third-party sharing and commission From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU is based on new definition (net all-in) only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" is discontinued. Glossary of terms and definitions Operational data Subscriber Number of registered SIM at ending period whose status is not defined as churn Postpaid churn Subscribers whose payment status is overdue more than 45 days from due date Prepaid churn Subscribers who do not make a refill within 37 days after validity expires Net additions Change of number of subscribers and ending period from the beginning period New all-in ARPU excl.IC Consolidated service revenue excluding international call revenue from AIN divided by average of subscriber at the beginning and ending period. It includes voice revenue, value-added services, international roaming, international call and other revenues such as national roaming,broadband and transmission New all-in ARPU Including net interconnection (IC revenue - IC cost) incl. IC MOU Number of billed outgoing minutes generated from voice call including international call usage and SMS divided by average subscriber Churn rate Number of subscriber disconnections in the period divided by the sum of gross new subscribers in the period and the subscribers at the beginning period Non-voice (data) Includes all non-voice services e.g. SMS, MMS, GPRS, ring-back tone, infotainment and data transmission; excluding call management service e.g. call forward, conference call, call divert Financial data EBITDA margin Operating profit before depreciation on property and equipment, amortization of assets under concession, amortization of computer software, amortization of concession right, goodwill, and allowance for impairment as a percentage to total revenue Interest Coverage Interest expense for the period divided by operating profit for the period DSCR Debt service coverage ratio calculated EBITDA after tax divided by repayment of short-term borrowings and current portion of long-term borrowings and debentures and interest paid for the period Net Debt / EBITDA Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts minus cash divided by EBITDA Net Debt / Equity Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts minus cash divided by total shareholder's equity at ending period Interest-bearing Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts divided Debt to Equity by total shareholder's equity at ending period Total Liabilities Total liabilities at ending period divided by total to Equity shareholder's equity at ending period Free cash flow (EBITDA - capex - tax) / (market capitalization + book to EV of net debt) ROE Return on equity = Net income / average equity between beginning and ending of period Disclaimer "Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" , "expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.