anagement Discussion & Analysis 1Q08
14 พฤษภาคม 2551
Total cost (18,399)-64.2% (14,293) -60.8% (28,752) -72.1% 28.7 -36.0
Gross profit 10,249 35.8% 9,206 39.2% 11,118 27.9% 11.3 -7.8
SG&A (2,585) -9.0% (3,126) -13.3% (3,382) -8.5% -17.3 -23.6
Directors' remuneration
(3) 0.0% (2) 0.0% (4) 0.0% 55.2 -19.1
Operating profit 7,661 26.7% 6,077 25.9% 7,733 19.4% 26.1 -0.9
Interest expense (374) -1.3% (448) -1.9% (427) -1.1% -16.4 -12.5
Other income 192 0.7% 201 0.9% 163 0.4% -4.5 17.4
Exchange gain/(Loss) (134) -0.5% (9) 0.0% (28) -0.1% 1,325.6 379.1
EBT 7,344 25.6% 5,821 24.8% 7,441 18.7% 26.2 -1.3
Minority interest (21) -0.1% 16 0.1% 22 0.1%-232.7-199.6
Corporate tax (2,199) -7.7% (1,854) -7.9% (2,330) -5.8% 18.6 -5.6
Net income 5,124 17.9% 3,984 17.0% 5,132 12.9% 28.6 -0.2
Revenue and cost breakdown
Service revenue excl. IC
1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Basic voice
GSM Advance 23.4% 22.6% 21.0% 21.3% 22.5% 22.5% 20.6% 18.5% 17.0%
GSM 1800 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
Postpaid 25.0% 24.1% 22.3% 22.6% 23.5% 23.5% 21.5% 19.3% 17.7%
Prepaid 59.7% 59.1% 60.4% 58.4% 56.3% 57.6% 59.1% 59.5% 58.5%
Non-voice
Postpaid 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.2%
Prepaid 5.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.6% 6.9% 7.3%
International roaming
4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 5.1% 5.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.4%
Others (IDD, other fees)
2.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.2% 3.9% 4.4% 5.9%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Sales revenue 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Handset 92.4% 92.1% 95.8% 93.0% 93.7% 93.4% 94.7% 95.2% 95.0%
SIM 7.6% 7.9% 4.2% 7.0% 6.3% 6.6% 5.3% 4.8% 5.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%100.0%
Cost of service excl. IC
1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Amortization 71.5% 71.2% 67.4% 68.3% 67.3% 68.4% 68.7% 69.2% 68.8%
Base station - rental & utility
7.9% 9.1% 9.1% 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 9.3% 9.2% 9.6%
Maintenance 8.6% 7.7% 8.8% 8.3% 8.0% 7.3% 7.8% 7.6% 6.7%
Others 12.0% 12.0% 14.7% 13.8% 15.1% 14.5% 14.2% 14.0% 14.9%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0 100.0%
Cost of sales 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Handsets 98.1% 97.7% 98.5% 97.6% 97.6% 97.1% 96.9% 97.6% 97.6%
SIM 1.9% 2.3% 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%100.0%
Consolidated balance sheet
Bt. million
1Q08 % of total 4Q07 % of total
asset asset
Current Assets 26,450 19.9% 20,586 16.0%
Property and Equipment 8,265 6.2% 8,561 6.6%
Networks under Concession 76,432 57.6% 78,527 60.9%
Intangible asset 10,467 7.9% 10,593 8.2%
Defer tax asset 10,077 7.6% 10,031 7.8%
Others 989 0.7% 644 0.5%
Total Assets 132,680 100.0% 128,942 100.0%
ST loan from financial institution
- - 3,492 2.7%
Account Payable-trade 4,156 3.1% 4,218 3.3%
Current Portion of LT Debt 3,991 3.0% 1,545 1.2%
Current Portion of Concession
9,720 7.3% 8,373 6.5%
Long-term Debt 22,225 16.8% 25,312 19.6%
Other Liabilities 11,845 8.9% 10,541 8.2%
Total Liabilities 51,937 39.1% 53,481 41.5%
Total Equity 80,743 60.9% 75,461 58.5%
Key ratios
1Q08 1Q07 4Q07
EBITDA (Bt. million) 12,280 10,500 12,698
EBITDA margin 42.9% 44.7% 31.8%
Interest coverage (x) 20.5 13.6 18.1
DSCR (x) 6.3 5.5 5.3
Net debt / EBITDA (x) 0.23 0.36 0.43
Net debt / Equity (%) 14% 19% 29%
Interest-bearing debt to Equity (x) 0.32 0.35 0.40
Total liabilities to Equity (x) 0.64 0.69 0.71
Free cash flow to EV (%) 10.4% 6.8% 8.9%
ROE (%) 26% 20% 28%
OPERATIONAL DATA
Subscribers
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
GSM Advance
1,797,100 1,868,200 2,143,700 2,534,700 2,566,300 2,349,300 2,203,500 2,243,100
GSM 1800
114,800 105,400 98,700 92,000 86,800 82,600 82,400 81,400
Postpaid
1,911,900 1,973,600 2,242,400 2,626,700 2,653,100 2,431,900 2,285,900 2,324,500
Prepaid
15,406,00015,749,50017,279,10018,462,60020,038,30020,772,50021,819,50022,762,800
Total subscribers
17,317,90017,723,10019,521,50021,089,30022,691,40023,204,40024,105,40025,087,300
Net additions
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Postpaid
-6,100 61,700 268,800 384,300 26,400 -221,200 -146,000 38,600
Prepaid 690,100 343,5001,529,6001,183,5001,575,700 734,200 1,047,000 943,300
Total net additions
684,000 405,2001,798,40 1,567,8001,602,100 513,000 901,000 981,900
Churn rate (%) 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Postpaid 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 2.5% 3.9% 4.8% 4.7% 1.9%
Prepaid 2.8% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4%
Blended 2.6% 2.9% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2%
Subscriber market share
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Postpaid 41% 41% 43% 44% 44% 42% 41% n/a
Prepaid 52% 50% 50% 50% 49% 47% 46% n/a
Total 51% 48% 49% 49% 48% 46% 46% n/a
*new ARPU excl. IC (Bt: net all-in)
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
GSM Advance 964 876 845 811 741 696 744 757
GSM 1800 815 805 806 781 773 760 739 730
Postpaid 955 872 843 809 742 698 743 756
Prepaid 286 277 262 249 234 222 227 231
Blended 362 343 328 317 295 274 279 280
*new ARPU incl. net IC (Bt: net all-in)
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
GSM Advance n/a n/a n/a 788 708 665 696 708
GSM 1800 n/a n/a n/a 781 773 760 739 730
Postpaid n/a n/a n/a 787 710 668 698 708
Prepaid n/a n/a n/a 263 258 233 238 237
Blended n/a n/a n/a 326 312 282 283 282
MOU (minutes: outgoing only)
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
GSM Advance 521 559 550 587 504 511 573 594
GSM 1800 418 418 426 412 416 422 426 476
Postpaid 515 551 544 580 501 507 568 589
Prepaid 303 229 214 228 218 224 239 260
Blended 327 265 251 270 252 256 271 290
Traffic 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
% outgoing to total minute
n/a n/a n/a 46% 47% 48% 48% 48%
% on-net to total outgoing minute
n/a n/a n/a 56% 63% 68% 70% 71%
* From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU is based on new definition (net all-in)
only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" is discontinued.
QUARTERLY REVIEW OF TARIFF PLANS
Prepaid plans for new subscription
Aow Pai Leoy Bt3, 1/min - 6pm-10pm: Bt3 for the first minute,
Bt1/minute thereafter
- 10pm-6pm: Bt2 for the first minute,
Bt0.50/minute thereafter
Sawasdee - Bt2/minute for on-net, Bt4/minute for off-net
- Cost of SIM: Bt110, 1-year validity
Sawasdee North East - Call made in northeast area: Bt1/minute
- Call made outside of northeast area:
Bt2/minute on-net, Bt4/minute off-net
- Cost of SIM: Bt110, 1-year validity
Moo-Hou - Call made in northeast area :
On-net: Bt2 for the first minute and
Bt0.50/minute thereafter
Off-net: Bt2 for the first minute and
Bt1/minute thereafter
- Call made outside of northeast area:
Bt2/minute on-net, Bt4/minute off-net
- Cost of SIM: Bt50, Validity: Bt100 for 30 days
Sawasdee SIM Mae Yok - Bt2 per minute to all networks
- Cost of SIM: Bt50, Validity: Bt100 for 30 days
Sawasdee Nan Nan - Bt2.50 to all networks
- Cost of SIM: Bt50, 1-year validity
SIM Fifty - Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
- Cost of SIM: Bt50
SIM Fifty North - Call made in northern area: Bt2 for
the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
- Call made outside of northern area:
Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
Mini SIM - Bt1.50 to all networks
- Cost of SIM: Bt20
* Remark: Mini SIM is offered for limited
amounts and to selected subscribers only
Day SIM 6am-6pm: Bt0.50/minute
- 6pm-6am: Bt2/minute
- Cost of SIM: Bt99, Validity: Bt300 for 30 days
Night SIM - 10pm-10am: Bt0.50/minute
- 10am-10pm: Bt2/minute
- Cost of SIM: Bt49, Validity: Bt300 for 30 days
Prepaid plans for existing subscribers
Flexi - Call more than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt5 for
the first minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter
- Call less than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt3 for
the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
- Monthly charge: Bt30
Short Call - Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
Long Call - Bt5 for the first minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter
Day Call - Bt199/month for unlimited on-net between 5am-5pm
- 5pm-5am & Off-net: Bt3 for the first minute,
Bt0.50/minute thereafter
Night Call - Bt159/month for unlimited on-net between 10pm-10am
- 10am-10pm& off-net: Bt3 for the first minute,
Bt0.50/minute thereafter
SMS Lover - Bt99/month for 500 SMS
- Call charge: Bt3 for the first minute,
Bt1/minute thereafter
Postpaid plans for new subscription
GSM 99/month - Bt1.50/minute to all networks
- Call 1 hour pay only 5 minutes, free call on
6th-60th minute for each call
GSM buffet 159/month Monthly fee: Bt159
For On-net
- 5am-5pm: Free call for 1 hour, exceed 1
hour tariff at Bt1/minute
- 5pm-5am: Bt2 for the first minute,
then Bt1/minute thereafter
For off-net
- Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute
thereafter
GSM buffet 199/month Monthly fee: Bt199
For On-net
- 5am-5pm: Free call for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour
tariff at Bt1/minute
- 5pm-5am: Bt1.50/minute
For off-net
- Bt1.50/minute
Postpaid plans for existing subscribers
GSM buffet 299/month Monthly fee: Bt299
For On-net
- 11pm-5pm: Free call for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour
tariff at Bt1/minute
- 5pm-11pm: Bt2 for the first minute, then
Bt1/minute thereafter
For off-net
- Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute
thereafter
GSM Night Call 299/month Monthly fee: Bt299
- 11pm-5pm: Bt2 for the first minute,
then Bt0.50/minute thereafter
- 5pm-11pm: Free call any network 30 minutes/day,
exceed 30 minutes tariff at Bt2 for the first
minute, then Bt0.50/minute thereafter
GSM Tam Jai - Bt250/month, free call 200 minutes
- Bt500/month, free call 400 minutes
- Bt750/month, free call 600 minutes
- Bt1,000/month, free call 800 minutes
- Exceed call tariff at Bt1.50/minute
ARPU DEFINITION
In accordance with the international practice, we have adjusted ARPU
disclosure to better reflect all revenues generated from the mobile network.
We believe the new definition should provide a more transparent representation
of our reported service revenue and maintain the conservative approach of
recognizing revenue on the net basis. The revenue items included in the
calculation of ARPU figures are based on consolidated revenue according to the
Thai accounting standard. The ARPU definition is outlined accordingly.
ARPU (All-in) exclude IC
Definition Consolidated service revenue excluding international call
revenue from AIN and interconnection revenue divided by average
of
subscribers at the beginning and ending period.
= Service revenue - AIN revenue - Gross ICrevenue/
(beg.sub + end.sub) / 2
Revenue composition
- Voice
- Value-added service (call management,SMS, MMS, data)
- International roaming
- International cal via CAT, TOT
- Others
Not include
- Net interconnection revenue
- International call via AIN (AIS subsidiary)
All categories are net of third -party sharing and commission
ARPU (All-in) include IC
Definition Consolidated service revenue excluding international call revenue
from AIN divided by average of subscribers at the beginning and
ending period.
= Service revenue - AIN revenue - Gross IC revenue + Net IC/
(beg.sub + end.sub) / 2
Revenue composition
- Voice
- Value-added service (call management,SMS, MMS, data)
- International roaming
- International cal via CAT, TOT
- Others
- Net interconnection revenue
Not include
- International call via AIN (AIS subsidiary)
All categories are net of third-party sharing and commission
From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU is based on new definition (net all-in)
only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" is discontinued.
Glossary of terms and definitions
Operational data
Subscriber Number of registered SIM at ending period whose status is
not defined as churn
Postpaid churn Subscribers whose payment status is overdue more than 45
days from due date
Prepaid churn Subscribers who do not make a refill within 37 days after
validity expires
Net additions Change of number of subscribers and ending period from
the beginning period
New all-in ARPU excl.IC
Consolidated service revenue excluding international call
revenue from AIN divided by average of subscriber at the
beginning and ending period. It includes voice revenue,
value-added services, international roaming, international
call and other revenues such as national roaming,broadband
and transmission
New all-in ARPU Including net interconnection (IC revenue - IC cost)
incl. IC
MOU Number of billed outgoing minutes generated from voice
call including international call usage and SMS divided by
average subscriber
Churn rate Number of subscriber disconnections in the period divided
by the sum of gross new subscribers in the period and the
subscribers at the beginning period
Non-voice (data) Includes all non-voice services e.g. SMS, MMS, GPRS,
ring-back tone, infotainment and data transmission;
excluding call management service e.g. call forward,
conference call, call divert
Financial data
EBITDA margin Operating profit before depreciation on property and
equipment, amortization of assets under concession,
amortization of computer software, amortization of
concession right, goodwill, and allowance for impairment
as a percentage to total revenue
Interest Coverage Interest expense for the period divided by operating
profit for the period
DSCR Debt service coverage ratio calculated EBITDA after
tax divided by repayment of short-term borrowings and
current portion of long-term borrowings and debentures
and interest paid for the period
Net Debt / EBITDA Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts minus
cash divided by EBITDA
Net Debt / Equity Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts minus cash
divided by total shareholder's equity at ending period
Interest-bearing Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts divided
Debt to Equity by total shareholder's equity at ending period
Total Liabilities Total liabilities at ending period divided by total
to Equity shareholder's equity at ending period
Free cash flow (EBITDA - capex - tax) / (market capitalization + book
to EV of net debt)
ROE Return on equity = Net income / average equity between
beginning and ending of period
Disclaimer
"Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements,
which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements
with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other
statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified
by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" , "expect" ,
"anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar
words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs
in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions
involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results,
performance or achievements to be materially different from any future
results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements.