anagement discussion and analysis

19 กุมภาพันธ์ 2551
Postpaid 1,028 892 809 776 751 689 650 685 Prepaid 316 266 258 239 227 217 205 209 Blended 400 337 319 300 290 274 254 256 *new ARPU excl. IC 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 (Bt: net all-in) GSM Advance 1,104 964 876 845 811 741 696 744 GSM 1800 907 815 805 806 781 773 760 739 Postpaid 1,091 955 872 843 809 742 698 743 Prepaid 340 286 277 262 249 234 222 227 Blended 429 362 343 328 317 295 274 279 *new ARPU incl. net IC 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 (Bt: net all-in) GSM Advance n/a n/a n/a n/a 788 708 665 696 GSM 1800 n/a n/a n/a n/a 781 773 760 739 Postpaid n/a n/a n/a n/a 787 710 668 698 Prepaid n/a n/a n/a n/a 263 258 233 238 Blended n/a n/a n/a n/a 326 312 282 283 MOU (minutes: outgoing 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 only) GSM Advance 476 521 559 550 587 504 511 573 GSM 1800 495 418 418 426 412 416 422 426 Postpaid 477 515 551 544 580 501 507 568 Prepaid 203 303 229 214 228 218 224 239 Blended 235 327 265 251 270 252 256 271 Traffic 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 % outgoing to total n/a n/a n/a n/a 46% 47% 48% 48% minute % on-net to total n/a n/a n/a n/a 56% 63% 68% 70% outgoing minute * From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU will be based on new definition (net all-in) only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" will be discontinued. QUARTERLY REVIEW OF TARIFF PLANS Prepaid plans for new subscription Aow Pai Leoy Bt3, Bt3 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter 0.50/min Call 1 AIS number at Bt0.25/minute Sawasdee North East Call made in northeast area: Bt1/minute Call made outside of northeast area: Bt2/minute on-net, Bt4/minute off-net Cost of SIM: Bt110, 1-year validity Sawasdee SIM Mae Yok Tariff rate: Bt2 per minute to all networks Cost of SIM: Bt50, Validity: Bt100 for 30 days SIM Fifty Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Cost of SIM: Bt50 SIM Fifty North Call made in northern area: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Call made outside of northern area: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Mini SIM Bt1.50 to all networks Cost of SIM: Bt20 * Remark: Mini SIM is offered for limited amounts and to selected subscribers only Prepaid plans for existing subscribers Flexi Call more than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt5 for the first minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter Call less than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Short Call Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Long Call Bt5 for the first minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter Day Call Bt199/month for unlimited on-net between 5am-5pm 5pm-5am & Off-net: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Night Call Bt159/month for unlimited on-net between 10pm-10am 10am-10pm& off-net: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter SMS Lover Bt99/month for 500 SMS Call charge: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Sawasdee Unn Unn On-net Bt2/minute, Off-net Bt4/minute 1-year validity when top up at any value Postpaid plans for new subscription GSM 99/month Month 1-6 @ Bt1/min on-net (max Bt5/hour), Bt2/min off- net (max Bt10/hour) Month 7-12 @ Bt1/min on-net, Bt2/min off-net GSM buffet 159/month On-net: 5am-5pm unlimited, 5pm-5am Bt2 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter Off-net: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt1/minute Postpaid plans for existing subscribers GSM buffet 299/month On-net: 11pm-5pm unlimited, 5pm-11pm Bt2 for the first minute, Bt1/minute Off-net: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt1/minute GSM Night Call 299/month 11pm-5pm: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter to all networks 5pm-11pm: Free call any network 30 minutes/day, exceed 30 minutes tariff: Bt2 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute GSM Ta-Luang package Bt300/month @Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute, Free call 10 minutes/day Bt600/month @Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute, Free call 25 minutes/day Bt900/month @Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute, Free call 40 minutes/day CHANGE OF DEFINITION In accordance with the international practice, we have adjusted ARPU disclosure to better reflect all revenues generated from the mobile network. We believe the new definition should provide a more transparent representation of our reported service revenue and maintain the conservative approach of recognizing revenue on the net basis. The revenue items included in the calculation of ARPU figures are based on consolidated revenue according to the Thai accounting standard. The changes of ARPU definition are outlined accordingly. ARPU Old ARPU New ARPU (All-in) (voice + value-added service) Definition Consolidated revenue from voice Consolidated service revenue and value-added services divided excluding international call by average of subscribers at the revenue from AIN divided by beginning and ending period. average of subscribers at the beginning and ending period. = Voice revenue + VAS revenue =Service revenue excluding AIN revenue (beg.sub + end.sub) / 2 (beg.sub + end.sub) / 2 Revenue X Voice X Voice composition X Value-added service (call X Value-added service (call management, SMS, MMS, data) management, SMS, MMS, data) International roaming International roaming International call via CAT,TOT X International call via CAT,TOT International call via AIN X Others (AIS subsidiary) Others International call via AIN (AIS subsidiary) All categories are net of All categories are net of third-party sharing and third-party sharing and commission commission From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU will be based on new definition (net all- in) only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" will be discontinued. Glossary of terms and definitions Operational data Subscriber Number of registered SIM at ending period whose status is not defined as churn Postpaid churn Subscribers whose payment status is overdue more than 45 days from due date Prepaid churn Subscribers who do not make a refill within 37 days after validity expires Net additions Change of number of subscribers and ending period from the beginning period New all-in ARPU Consolidated service revenue excluding international call excl. IC revenue from AIN divided by average of subscriber at the beginning and ending period. It includes voice revenue, value-added services, international roaming, international call and other revenues such as national roaming, broadband and transmission New all-in ARPU Including net interconnection (IC revenue - IC cost) incl. IC MOU Number of billed outgoing minutes generated from voice call including international call usage and SMS divided by average subscriber Churn rate Number of subscriber disconnections in the period divided by the sum of gross new subscribers in the period and the subscribers at the beginning period Non-voice (data) Includes all non-voice services e.g. SMS, MMS, GPRS, ring-back tone,infotainment and data transmission; excluding call management service e.g. call forward, conference call, call divert Financial data EBITDA margin Operating profit before depreciation on property and equipment,amortization of assets under concession, amortization of computer software, amortization of concession right, goodwill, and allowance for impairment as a percentage to total revenue Interest Coverage Interest expense for the period divided by operating profit for the period DSCR Debt service coverage ratio calculated EBITDA after tax divided by repayment of short-term borrowings and current portion of long-term borrowings and debentures and interest paid for the period Net Debt / EBITDA Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts minus cash divided by EBITDA Net Debt / Equity Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts minus cash divided by total shareholder's equity at ending period Interest-bearing Short-tem and long-term interest-bearing debts divided by Debt to Equity total shareholder's equity at ending period Total Liabilities Total liabilities at ending period divided by total to Equity shareholder's equity at ending period Free cash flow (EBITDA - capex - tax) / (market capitalization + book to EV value of net debt) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Disclaimer "Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" ,"expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.