Management's Discussion and Analysis
13 November 2007
Management's Discussion and Analysis
Overview
For 3Q07, AIS and its subsidiaries ("The Group") reported net additions of
513,000. The slow net addition compared to 1.6 million in 2Q07 was a result
of weak seasonality and economic slowdown in the period. Of total net
additions,prepaid subscribers increased 734,200 but postpaid subscriber
declined 221,200 as the Group did not push the postpaid market as aggressively
as in the previous two quarters and more conservative credit screening policy
in acquiring new postpaid subscribers. As at end of September 2007, the Group
recorded the total subscriber of 23.2 million, a 31% growth over the same
period of 2006.
The Group has successfully sustained its subscriber market share and
stabilized its revenue market share during the last three quarters. As a
result,service revenues continued to grow 5.7% y-o-y to Bt19,079 million
in 3Q07 from Bt18,046 million in 3Q06. However, on a quarterly basis, service
revenues declined 2.6% from Bt19,597 million in 2Q07as third quarter was
normally a weak season.
Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue in 3Q07 declined to
3.3% from 3.5% in 3Q06 and 3.8% in 2Q07 as marketing activities were
slowed down during the low season. For the full year, the Group maintains the
marketing budget at 4% of total revenue. Bad debt provision improved to 7.0%
in 3Q07 down from 8.1% in 2Q07 based on the Group's conservative credit
policy in screening new postpaid subscriber. Quality of debtors remained high
with over 90% of gross account receivable aging are current and due less
than 3 months.
The Group posted a net profit of Bt3,512 million in 3Q07, a fall of 3.9% y-o-y
and 4.1% q-o-q.
For the nine-month period of 2007 (9M07), service revenues were Bt58,168
million, increased 0.7% y-o-y from Bt57,735 million in 9M06 while sales
revenues declined 8.3% y-o-y to Bt10,416 million in 9M07 from Bt11,364
million in 9M06. This would not have material impact to company's bottom line
since sales margin were normally thin and contributed marginally to the
consolidated net profit. Total revenues were relatively stable at Bt68,584
million in 9M07 or 0.7% declined y-o-y from Bt69,100 million in 9M06.
Total costs were flat in 9M07 at Bt42,004 million compared to Bt41,967 million
in 9M06. Cost of service increased 3.4% y-o-y in 9M07 from higher operating
cost for network quality improvement. SG&A expenses increased 17.4% y-o-y
to Bt9,386 million in 9M07 from Bt7,997 million in 9M06 due to higher
marketing expenses and bad debt provision.
For 9M07, net profit was Bt11,159 million, decreased 14.6% y-o-y from
Bt13,069 million in 9M06.
On 14 August 2007, the Board of Director approved an interim dividend for
2,957.16 million shares totaling of Bt8,871 million, implying a dividend per
share of Bt3.00. Dividends were paid to shareholders on 10 September 2007.
Financial summary
(Bt million) 3Q07 3Q06 % change 2Q07 % change
y-o-y q-o-q
Service revenue 19,079 18,046 5.7% 19,597 (2.6%)
Sales revenue 3,328 3,858 (13.7%) 3,082 8.0%
Total revenue 22,407 21,903 2.3% 22,678 (1.2%)
Total cost 13,984 13,876 0.8% 13,728 1.9%
Gross profit 8,423 8,027 4.9% 8,950 (5.9%)
SG&A 2,959 2,621 12.9% 3,301 (10.4%)
Earnings before 5,593 5,665 (1.3%) 5,795 (3.5%)
interest and tax
Net profit 3,512 3,653 (3.9%) 3,663 (4.1%)
9M07 9M06 % change
(9-mths) (9-mths) y-o-y
Service revenue 58,168 57,735 0.7%
Sales revenue 10,416 11,364 (8.3%)
Total revenue 68,584 69,100 (0.7%)
Total cost 42,004 41,967 0.1%
Gross profit 26,580 27,133 (2.0%)
SG&A 9,386 7,997 17.4%
Earnings before interest and tax 17,657 19,947 (11.5%)
Net profit 11,159 13,069 (14.6%)
Revenues & Profitability
Total Revenue
Total revenues in 3Q07 were Bt22,407 million, increased 2.3% y-o-y from
Bt21,903 million in 3Q06 mainly from strong subscriber growth. Of total
revenues, 85% represented revenues from mobile services and the rest 15%
from handset and SIM card sales.
Service revenues improved 5.7% y-o-y to Bt19,079 million in 3Q07 from
Bt18,046 million in 3Q06 from strong subscriber growth. On a quarterly basis,
service revenues dropped 2.6% due to low seasonality and slow economic
condition. Sales revenues dropped to Bt3,328 million in 3Q07, a decline of
13.7% y-o-y from Bt3,858 million in 3Q06 but improved 8.0% q-o-q from
Bt3,082 million in 2Q07. Despite higher handset unit sales in this period,
sales revenues dropped due to lower handset selling prices and higher rebate
to distributors.
For the nine-month period of 2007 (9M07), total revenues were relatively stable
at Bt68,584 million in 9M07, a slight decline of 0.7% y-o-y from Bt69,100
million in 9M06. Service revenues were Bt58,168 million in 9M07, 0.7% growth
y-o-y from Bt57,735 million in 9M06 while sales revenues declined 8.3% y-o-y
to Bt10,416 million in 9M07 from Bt11,364 million in 9M06.
Total Cost
Total cost comprises of (1) cost of services and equipment rentals, (2)
concession fee, and (3) cost of sales. For 3Q07, the Group incurred total cost
of Bt13,984 million, an increase of 0.8% y-o-y and 1.9% q-o-q due to higher
cost of service and cost of sales.
(1) Cost of services and equipment rentals in 3Q07 were Bt6,239 million,
increased 7.1% y-o-y and 3.6% q-o-q from higher amortization cost, utilities
and other network related expenses following a large spending on network
investment last year and shortening concession life.
(2) Concession fee were Bt4,627 million in 3Q07, increased 4.9% y-o-y but
declined 4.4% q-o-q in proportion to service revenue. Concession fee as a
percentage of service revenue declined slightly to 24.2% in 3Q07 from 24.7%
in both 3Q06 and 2Q07.
(3) Cost of sales in 3Q07 was Bt3,118 million, decreased 14.3% y-o-y from
Bt3,638 million in 3Q06. On a quarterly basis, cost of sales increased 8.6%
due to higher rebate to distributors.
For 9M07, total costs were relatively flat at Bt42,004 million compared to
Bt41,967 million in 9M06.
Selling and administrative expenses (SG&A)
SG&A were Bt2,959 million in 3Q07, increased 12.9% y-o-y from Bt2,621
million in 3Q06 from higher bad debt provision. In 3Q07, bad debt provision as
a percentage to total postpaid revenue was 7.0% compared to 1.4% in 3Q06
due to aggressive postpaid subscriber acquisitions since the beginning of
2007. However, bad debt provision improved to 7.0% in 3Q07 from 8.1% in
2Q07 based on the Group's conservative credit policy in screening new
postpaid subscribers. Quality of debtors remained high with over 90% of gross
account receivable aging are current and due less than 3 months.
Marketing expenses as a percentage to total revenue in 3Q07 declined to
3.3% from 3.5% in 3Q06 and 3.8% in 2Q07 as marketing activities were
slowed down during the low season. For the full year, the Group maintains the
marketing budget at 4% to total revenue.
For 9M07, SG&A expenses increased 17.4% y-o-y to Bt9,386 million in 9M07
from Bt7,997 million in 9M06 from higher marketing expenses and bad debt
provision.
Net Profit
The Group posted a net profit of Bt3,512 million in 3Q07, a fall of 3.9% y-o-y
and 4.1% q-o-q. For 9M07, net profit was Bt11,159 million, decreased 14.6%
y-o-y from Bt13,069 million in 9M06.
Liquidity
As of 30 September 2007, current ratio declined to 52% from 74% as of 31
December 2006 due to less cash outstanding from dividend payment during
3Q07.
Current assets
The current assets as of 30 September 2007 were Bt 16,755 million, declined
26.8% from Bt22,893 million at the end of 2006 mainly from less cash and
cash equivalents.
30 September 2007 31 December 2006
Million % Total Million % Total
Baht assets Baht assets
Cash and cash equivalents 7,470 5.9% 12,742 9.5%
Trade receivables 5,024 4.0% 4,898 3.6%
Inventories for network spare part 1,298 1.0% 2,055 1.5%
Other current assets 2,963 2.3% 3,198 2.4%
Total current assets 16,755 13.2% 22,893 17.0%
Current liabilities
Current liabilities slightly increased to Bt32,013 million from Bt 31,039
million at the end of 2006 as a result of increase in short term borrowings.
30 September 2007 31 December 2006
Million % Total Million % Total
Baht Liabilities Baht Liabilities
Short term loans 6,937 12.3% 1,000 1.8%
Trade payable 4,089 7.3% 5,760 10.2%
Portion of long-term debt due 2,516 4.5% 6,507 11.5%
in 1 year
Concession right payable, 10,668 19.0% 7,155 12.6%
accrued concession fee and
excise tax
Unearned income 3,191 5.7% 3,659 6.5%
Income tax payable 1,102 2.0% 2,963 5.2%
Other current liabilities 3,510 6.2% 3,995 7.0%
Total current liabilities 32,013 57.0% 31,039 54.7%
Assets
Total assets as of 30 September 2007 was Bt126,481 million, decreased from
Bt 134,301 million as of 31 December 2006 mainly because of lower current
asset. Fixed assets including Property Plant and Equipment and assets under
concession represented 71% of total assets.
30 September 2007 31 December 2006
Million % of assets Million % of assets
Baht Total Baht Total
Current assets 16,755 13.2% 22,893 17.0%
Property, plant and equipment, 7,966 6.3% 7,797 5.8%
net
Asset under concession 80,185 63.4% 81,096 60.4%
agreement, net
Intangible assets 11,031 8.7% 12,197 9.1%
Deferred tax assets 9,873 7.8% 9,763 7.3%
Other non-current assets 671 0.5% 555 0.4%
Total assets 126,481 100% 134,301 100%
Capital structure
The Group's capital structure remained strong with debt to equity ratio at 48%
as of 30 September 2007. Net debt to equity (Net debt = total debentures and
borrowings minus cash) was 37%, slightly increased from 26% as of 31
December 2006.
30 September 2007 31 December 2006
Total liabilities to equity 80% 73%
Debt to equity 48% 43%
Net debt to equity 37% 26%
Debentures and Loans
As of 30 September 2007, total debentures and borrowings were Bt33,601
million, increased from Bt33,149 million at the end of 4Q06. The increase in
borrowing was to finance operating activity and network capacity expansion.
30 September 2007 31 December 2006
Million % Total Million % Total
Baht Liabilities Baht Liabilities
Short term borrowing 6,937 12.3% 1,000 1.8%
Portion of long-term debt 2,516 4.5% 6,507 11.5%
due in 1 year
Long-term debt 24,148* 42.9% 25,642* 45.2%
Total debts 33,601 59.8% 33,149 58.5%
* including swap contract payable incurred from JPY-denominated syndicated
loan which was swapped into Thai Baht in total of Baht 9,485 million
Shareholders' equity
The Group's shareholder's equity was Bt70,308 million as of 30 September
2007 compared to Bt77,599 million as of 31 December 2006, a decline due to
an interim dividend payment in 3Q07.
Cash Flow
For the nine-month period, the Group generated Bt26,812 million of cash flow
from operations (after interest, tax, and changes in working capital) and had
net increase in short term borrowing of Bt5,868 million. Of this amount, the
group spent Bt13,373 million on capital expenditures, repaid Bt5,515 million of
long-term debentures and finance lease, and paid Bt18,622 million in
dividend. As a result, the group had net decrease in cash of Bt4,666 million
for the period.
This document contains certain forward-looking statements. They refer to
future events and to the future financial performance of the Companies.
Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-
looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect", "intend", "estimate",
"anticipate", "believe" or "continue". Although the Companies believe that the
expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable at
this time, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be
correct. Given these uncertainties, readers are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on such forward-looking statements