anagement discussion and analysis 1Q10

07 พฤษภาคม 2553
Company expects to grow free cash flow by 12% y-o-y due to lower capex to 6.2bn from 9.9bn in FY09. Majority of cost efficiency programs has already been implemented since 2008-09, hence further cost cutting would be relatively minimal. Only certain areas such as cost of refill cards can be further reduced as we move to refill-on-mobile. In addition, to support the potential growth on data service, certain network operating expenses will also be required. Net interconnection revenue is also expected in a range of 400-700m, lower than 2009 level. As a result, consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to be 44%. Handset sales are expected to be flat despite of improving consumer demand as competition on market for low-end handset has heightened. Sales strategy will move to focus on smart phones and mobile data aircard which produce better margin. Handset business remains as a vital part to support overall strategy for AIS on growing mobile service and to support the future launch of 3G service. 3G license timeline remains uncertain as the authority of the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) is the overhang issue. In the meantime, AIS is seeking an alternative to provide customers an experience on 3G by launching commercially 3G on the existing 900MHz frequency in a few key areas such as two major shopping complex in Bangkok, and other key provincial cities like Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Hua Hin. These will keep AIS brand equity as market leader committing to bring new technology to the consumers. Capital management will only be considered once the Company has a clearer view on the timeline of the potential 3G license on 2.1GHz which would effect the long-term capex plan and cash needs. At present, the Company's dividend policy is to pay no less than 40% of net profit given the Company can maintain its credit rating from TRIS at AA. OPERATIONAL DATA Subscribers 1Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2,586,300 GSM Advance 2,835,800 2,878,500 GSM 1800 76,900 78,900 78,300 Postpaid 2,663,200 2,914,700 2,956,800 Prepaid 24,918,600 25,858,200 26,552,400 Total subscribers 27,581,800 28,772,900 29,509,200 Net additions Postpaid 51,200 80,100 42,100 Prepaid 220,400 410,500 694,200 Total net additions 271,600 490,600 736,300 Churn rate (%) 2.2% 2.3% Postpaid 2.0% 5.2% 4.7% Prepaid 4.8% Blended 4.9% 4.4% 4.6% Subscriber market share Postpaid 41% 42% N/A Prepaid 44% 44% N/A Total 44% 44% N/A ARPU excl. IC (Bt) GSM Advance 678 660 657 GSM 1800 636 623 610 Postpaid 677 659 655 Prepaid 195 192 193 Blended 241 239 240 ARPU incl. net IC (Bt) GSM Advance 634 619 617 GSM 1800 620 604 593 Postpaid 634 619 617 Prepaid 203 198 198 Blended 244 240 240 MOU (minutes: billable outgoing l) GSM Advance 533 535 524 GSM 1800 480 492 483 Postpaid 531 534 523 Prepaid 243 255 263 Blended 271 283 289 Traffic % outgoing to total minute 48% 49% 48% % on-net to total outgoing minute 77% 79% 80% Disclaimer "Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" , "expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.