anagement discussion and analysis 1Q10
07 พฤษภาคม 2553
Company expects to grow free cash flow by 12% y-o-y due to lower capex to
6.2bn from 9.9bn in FY09. Majority of cost efficiency programs has already
been implemented since 2008-09, hence further cost cutting would be relatively
minimal. Only certain areas such as cost of refill cards can be further
reduced as we move to refill-on-mobile. In addition, to support the potential
growth on data service, certain network operating expenses will also be
required. Net interconnection revenue is also expected in a range of 400-700m,
lower than 2009 level. As a result, consolidated EBITDA margin is expected to
be 44%.
Handset sales are expected to be flat despite of improving consumer demand as
competition on market for low-end handset has heightened. Sales strategy will
move to focus on smart phones and mobile data aircard which produce better
margin. Handset business remains as a vital part to support overall strategy
for AIS on growing mobile service and to support the future launch of 3G
service.
3G license timeline remains uncertain as the authority of the National
Telecommunications Commission (NTC) is the overhang issue. In the meantime,
AIS is seeking an alternative to provide customers an experience on 3G by
launching commercially 3G on the existing 900MHz frequency in a few key areas
such as two major shopping complex in Bangkok, and other key provincial cities
like Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Hua Hin. These will keep AIS brand equity as
market leader committing to bring new technology to the consumers.
Capital management will only be considered once the Company has a clearer view
on the timeline of the potential 3G license on 2.1GHz which would effect the
long-term capex plan and cash needs. At present, the Company's dividend policy
is to pay no less than 40% of net profit given the Company can maintain its
credit rating from TRIS at AA.
OPERATIONAL DATA
Subscribers 1Q09 4Q09 1Q10
2,586,300
GSM Advance 2,835,800 2,878,500
GSM 1800 76,900 78,900 78,300
Postpaid 2,663,200 2,914,700 2,956,800
Prepaid 24,918,600 25,858,200
26,552,400
Total subscribers 27,581,800 28,772,900
29,509,200
Net additions
Postpaid 51,200 80,100 42,100
Prepaid 220,400 410,500 694,200
Total net additions 271,600 490,600 736,300
Churn rate (%)
2.2% 2.3%
Postpaid 2.0%
5.2% 4.7%
Prepaid 4.8%
Blended 4.9% 4.4%
4.6%
Subscriber market share
Postpaid 41% 42% N/A
Prepaid 44% 44% N/A
Total 44% 44% N/A
ARPU excl. IC (Bt)
GSM Advance 678 660 657
GSM 1800 636 623 610
Postpaid 677 659 655
Prepaid 195 192 193
Blended 241 239 240
ARPU incl. net IC (Bt)
GSM Advance 634 619 617
GSM 1800 620 604 593
Postpaid 634 619 617
Prepaid 203 198 198
Blended 244 240 240
MOU (minutes: billable outgoing
l)
GSM Advance 533 535 524
GSM 1800 480 492 483
Postpaid 531 534 523
Prepaid 243 255 263
Blended 271 283 289
Traffic
% outgoing to total minute 48% 49% 48%
% on-net to total outgoing minute 77% 79% 80%
Disclaimer
"Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements,
which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include
statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and
other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be
identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" ,
"expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other
similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and
beliefs in light of the information currently available to us.
These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual
results, performance or achievements to be materially different
from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by
such forward-looking statements.