anagement Discussion and Analysis

14 พฤษภาคม 2552
will allow all industry players to operate at more level-playing field under a fair cost structure. Operationally, AIS has been preparing for readiness to ensure the shortest launch time for commercial service. Financially, AIS is also well-shape to support the funding needs, partly reflected in the success of debenture issuance in Jan-09. While macro environment post a significant challenge this year, the operational large-scale advantage and solid financial strength will support AIS's flexibility to grow amidst this tough year. Disclaimer "Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" , "expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. FINANCIAL SUMMARY P&L summary 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09 y-o-y q-o-q Service revenue 25,682 24,077 24,267 -5.5% 0.8% Sales revenue 2,966 2,194 2,033 -31.4% -7.3% Total revenue 28,648 26,270 26,300 -8.2% 0.1% Cost of service (10,500) (10,145) (10,065) -4.1% -0.8% Revenue sharing (5,157) (4,823) (4,982) -3.4% 3.3% Cost of Sales (2,742) (2,198) (1,988) -27.5% -9.6% Gross Profit 10,249 9,104 9,264 -9.6% 1.8% SG&A (2,535) (3,235) (2,415) -4.7% -25.3% EBITDA 12,277 10,640 11,652 -5.0% 9.5% EBT 7,344 2,118 6,529 -11.1% 208.2% Net Income 5,124 420 4,567 -10.9% 986.3% Breakdown - Service revenue 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Postpaid - voice 17.7% 18.5% 17.9% Prepaid - voice 58.5% 57.9% 57.2% Postpaid - data 5.2% 6.3% 6.8% Prepaid - data 7.3% 8.2% 8.6% International roaming 5.4% 3.4% 4.0% Others (IDD, other fees) 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% Sales revenue Handset 95.0% 94.5% 94.0% SIM 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Breakdown - Cost of service Amortisation 68.8% 68.8% 69.4% Base station 9.6% 9.7% 9.8% Maintenance 6.7% 7.0% 6.5% Others 14.9% 14.5% 14.3% Cost of sales Handset 97.6% 96.2% 96.6% SIM 2.4% 3.8% 3.4% Balance Sheet summary 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Current Assets 26,450 26,896 38,968 Fixed Assets 84,698 81,189 79,318 Total Assets 132,680 128,081 137,644 Total Liabilities 51,937 54,646 59,596 Retained Earnings 52,122 47,755 52,322 Total Equities 80,743 73,436 78,048 Key Ratios 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09 EBITDA 12,277 10,640 11,652 EBITDA Margin 42.9% 40.5% 44.3% Interest Coverage (x) 20.5 13.3 14.0 DSCR (x) 6.3 3.4 5.6 Net Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.23 0.42 0.19 Net debt to Equity (x) 0.14 0.25 0.12 Total Liabilities to Equity (x) 0.64 0.74 0.76 Free cash flow to EV (%) 10.4% 8.4% 11.0% ROE (%) 26% 20% 23% OPERATIONAL DATA Subscribers 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09 GSM Advance 2,586,300 2,243,100 2,534,200 GSM 1800 81,400 77,800 76,900 Postpaid 2,324,500 2,612,000 2,663,200 Prepaid 22,762,80 24,698,20 24,918,60 Total subscribers 25,087,30 27,310,20 27,581,80 Net additions Postpaid 38,600 123,000 51,200 Prepaid 943,300 412,600 220,400 Total net additions 981,900 535,600 271,600 Churn rate (%) Postpaid 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% Prepaid 4.4% 5.2% 4.8% Blended 4.2% 4.9% 4.6% Subscriber market share Postpaid 41% 40% n/a Prepaid 46% 45% n/a Total 46% 44% n/a ARPU excl. IC (Bt) GSM Advance 757 695 678 GSM 1800 729 666 636 Postpaid 756 695 677 Prepaid 231 193 195 Blended 280 241 241 ARPU incl. net IC (Bt) GSM Advance 707 647 634 GSM 1800 729 649 620 Postpaid 708 647 634 Prepaid (One-2-Call!) 237 203 203 Blended 282 245 244 MOU (minutes: billable outgoing only) GSM Advance 594 546 533 GSM 1800 476 487 480 Postpaid 589 544 531 Prepaid 260 242 243 Blended 290 270 271 Traffic % outgoing to total minute 48% 49% 48% % on-net to total outgoing minute 71% 76% 77%