anagement Discussion and Analysis
14 พฤษภาคม 2552
will allow all industry players to operate at more level-playing field under a
fair cost structure. Operationally, AIS has been preparing for readiness to
ensure the shortest launch time for commercial service. Financially, AIS is
also well-shape to support the funding needs, partly reflected in the success
of debenture issuance in Jan-09. While macro environment post a significant
challenge this year, the operational large-scale advantage and solid financial
strength will support AIS's flexibility to grow amidst this tough year.
Disclaimer
"Some statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements,
which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include
statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and
other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be
identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may" , "will" ,
"expect" , "anticipate", "intend" , "estimate" , "continue" "plan" or other
similar words. The statements are based on our management's assumptions and
beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These
assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual
results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any
future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
P&L summary 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09 y-o-y q-o-q
Service revenue 25,682 24,077 24,267 -5.5% 0.8%
Sales revenue 2,966 2,194 2,033 -31.4% -7.3%
Total revenue 28,648 26,270 26,300 -8.2% 0.1%
Cost of service (10,500) (10,145) (10,065) -4.1% -0.8%
Revenue sharing (5,157) (4,823) (4,982) -3.4% 3.3%
Cost of Sales (2,742) (2,198) (1,988) -27.5% -9.6%
Gross Profit 10,249 9,104 9,264 -9.6% 1.8%
SG&A (2,535) (3,235) (2,415) -4.7% -25.3%
EBITDA 12,277 10,640 11,652 -5.0% 9.5%
EBT 7,344 2,118 6,529 -11.1% 208.2%
Net Income 5,124 420 4,567 -10.9% 986.3%
Breakdown - Service revenue 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Postpaid - voice 17.7% 18.5% 17.9%
Prepaid - voice 58.5% 57.9% 57.2%
Postpaid - data 5.2% 6.3% 6.8%
Prepaid - data 7.3% 8.2% 8.6%
International roaming 5.4% 3.4% 4.0%
Others (IDD, other fees) 5.9% 5.7% 5.5%
Sales revenue
Handset 95.0% 94.5% 94.0%
SIM 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%
Breakdown - Cost of service
Amortisation 68.8% 68.8% 69.4%
Base station 9.6% 9.7% 9.8%
Maintenance 6.7% 7.0% 6.5%
Others 14.9% 14.5% 14.3%
Cost of sales
Handset 97.6% 96.2% 96.6%
SIM 2.4% 3.8% 3.4%
Balance Sheet summary 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Current Assets 26,450 26,896 38,968
Fixed Assets 84,698 81,189 79,318
Total Assets 132,680 128,081 137,644
Total Liabilities 51,937 54,646 59,596
Retained Earnings 52,122 47,755 52,322
Total Equities 80,743 73,436 78,048
Key Ratios 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09
EBITDA 12,277 10,640 11,652
EBITDA Margin 42.9% 40.5% 44.3%
Interest Coverage (x) 20.5 13.3 14.0
DSCR (x) 6.3 3.4 5.6
Net Debt / EBITDA (x) 0.23 0.42 0.19
Net debt to Equity (x) 0.14 0.25 0.12
Total Liabilities to Equity (x) 0.64 0.74 0.76
Free cash flow to EV (%) 10.4% 8.4% 11.0%
ROE (%) 26% 20% 23%
OPERATIONAL DATA
Subscribers 1Q08 4Q08 1Q09
GSM Advance 2,586,300 2,243,100 2,534,200
GSM 1800 81,400 77,800 76,900
Postpaid 2,324,500 2,612,000 2,663,200
Prepaid 22,762,80 24,698,20 24,918,60
Total subscribers 25,087,30 27,310,20 27,581,80
Net additions
Postpaid 38,600 123,000 51,200
Prepaid 943,300 412,600 220,400
Total net additions 981,900 535,600 271,600
Churn rate (%)
Postpaid 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
Prepaid 4.4% 5.2% 4.8%
Blended 4.2% 4.9% 4.6%
Subscriber market share
Postpaid 41% 40% n/a
Prepaid 46% 45% n/a
Total 46% 44% n/a
ARPU excl. IC (Bt)
GSM Advance 757 695 678
GSM 1800 729 666 636
Postpaid 756 695 677
Prepaid 231 193 195
Blended 280 241 241
ARPU incl. net IC (Bt)
GSM Advance 707 647 634
GSM 1800 729 649 620
Postpaid 708 647 634
Prepaid (One-2-Call!) 237 203 203
Blended 282 245 244
MOU (minutes: billable outgoing only)
GSM Advance 594 546 533
GSM 1800 476 487 480
Postpaid 589 544 531
Prepaid 260 242 243
Blended 290 270 271
Traffic
% outgoing to total minute 48% 49% 48%
% on-net to total outgoing minute 71% 76% 77%