anagement Discussion & Analysis 2Q08
13 สิงหาคม 2551
Cost of (6,411) -22.6% (6,020) -26.5% (6,361) -22.2% 6.5 0.8
service excl. IC
IC cost (4,080) -14.4% 0 0.0% (4,139) -14.4% n/a n/a
Cost of service (10,491) -37.0% (6,020) -26.5% (10,500) -36.7% 74.3 -0.1
Concession & (5,051) -17.8% (4,838) -21.3% (5,157) -18.0% 4.4 -2.1
excise tax
Cost of sales (2,865) -10.1% (2,871) -12.7% (2,742) -9.6% -0.2 4.5
Total cost (18,406) -64.9% (13,728) -60.5% (18,399) -64.2% 34.1 0.0
Gross profit 9,939 35.1% 8,950 39.5% 10,249 35.8% 11.0 -3.0
SG&A (2,613) -9.2% (3,301) -14.6% (2,585) -9.0% -20.8 1.1
Directors' (3) 0.0% (3) 0.0% (3) 0.0% 19.3 0.6
remuneration
Operating profit 7,323 25.8% 5,647 24.9% 7,661 26.7% 29.7 -4.4
Interest (394) -1.4% (417) -1.8% (374) -1.3% -5.5 5.4
expense
Other income 1,944 6.9% 155 0.7% 192 0.7% 1,152.5 913.9
Exchange 42 0.1% (7) 0.0% (134) -0.5% -707.5 -131.0
gain/(Loss)
EBT 8,915 31.5% 5,378 23.7% 7,344 25.6% 65.8 21.4
Minority (25) -0.1% 2 0.0% (21) -0.1% -1,254.5 17.2
interest
Corporate tax (2,557) -9.0% (1,717) -7.6% (2,199) -7.7% 48.9 16.3
Net income 6,333 22.3% 3,664 16.2% 5,124 17.9% 72.8 23.6
Bt. million 1H08 1H07 y-o-y
Service revenue excl. IC 42,486 74.5% 39,089 84.7% 8.7
IC revenue 8,400 14.7% n/a n/a n/a
Service revenue 50,886 89.3% 39,089 84.7% 30.2
Sales revenue 6,107 10.7% 7,087 15.3% -13.8
Total revenue 56,993 100.0% 46,177 100.0% 23.4
Cost of Service excl. IC (12,772) -22.4% (11,822) -25.6% 8.0
IC cost (8,219) -14.4% 0 0.0% n/a
Cost of service (20,991) -36.8% (11,822) -25.6% 77.6
Concession & excise tax (10,208) -17.9% (9,652) -20.9% 5.8
Cost of Sales (5,607) -9.8% (6,546) -14.2% -14.4
Total cost (36,805) -64.6% (28,020) -60.7% 31.4
Gross Profit 20,188 35.4% 18,156 39.3% 11.2
SG&A (5,198) -9.1% (6,427) -13.9% -19.1
Directors' remuneration (6) 0.0% (4) 0.0% 34.8
Operating profit 14,984 26.3% 11,725 25.4% 27.8
Interest Expense (769) -1.3% (865) -1.9% -11.1
Other Income 2,136 3.7% 356 0.8% 500.0
Exchange Gain/(Loss) (92) -0.2% (16) 0.0% 468.9
EBT 16,259 28.5% 11,199 24.3% 45.2
Minority interest (47) -0.1% 18 0.0% -354.1
Corporate Tax (4,756) -8.3% (3,570) -7.7% 33.2
Net Income 11,456 20.1% 7,648 16.6% 49.8
Revenue and cost breakdown
Service revenue excl. IC 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Basic voice
GSM Advance 22.5% 22.5% 20.6% 18.5% 17.0% 17.5%
GSM 1800 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Postpaid 23.5% 23.5% 21.5% 19.3% 17.7% 18.3%
Prepaid 56.3% 57.6% 59.1% 59.5% 58.5% 59.1%
Non-voice
Postpaid 4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 4.9%
Prepaid 6.3% 6.2% 6.6% 6.9% 7.3% 7.7%
International roaming 5.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.4% 4.5%
Others (IDD, other fees) 4.1% 4.2% 3.9% 4.4% 5.9% 5.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Sales revenue 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Handset 93.7% 93.4% 94.7% 95.2% 95.0% 95.8%
SIM 6.3% 6.6% 5.3% 4.8% 5.0% 4.2%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Cost of service excl. IC 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Amortization 67.3% 68.4% 68.7% 69.2% 68.8% 69.0%
Base station - rental & utility 9.6% 9.8% 9.3% 9.2% 9.6% 9.8%
Maintenance 8.0% 7.3% 7.8% 7.6% 6.7% 6.7%
Others 15.1% 14.5% 14.2% 14.0% 14.9% 14.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Cost of sales 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Handsets 98.2% 97.1% 96.9% 97.6% 97.6% 97.2%
SIM 1.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Consolidated balance sheet
Bt. million 2Q08 % of 4Q07 % of
total asset total asset
Current Assets 24,162 18.7% 20,586 16.0%
Property and Equipment 8,037 6.2% 8,561 6.6%
Networks under Concession 75,301 58.4% 78,527 60.9%
Intangible asset 10,314 8.0% 10,593 8.2%
Defer tax asset 10,085 7.8% 10,031 7.8%
Others 1,053 0.8% 644 0.5%
Total Assets 128,952 100.0% 128,942 100.0%
ST loan from financial institution 0 0.0% 3,492 2.7%
Account Payable-trade 4,755 3.7% 4,218 3.3%
Current Portion of LT Debt 4,020 3.1% 1,545 1.2%
Current Portion of Concession 6,203 4.8% 8,373 6.5%
Long-term Debt 26,261 20.4% 25,312 19.6%
Other Liabilities 10,354 8.0% 10,541 8.2%
Total Liabilities 51,593 40.0% 53,481 41.5%
Total Equity 77,359 60.0% 75,461 58.5%
Key ratios
2Q08 1Q08 2Q07
EBITDA (Bt. million) 11,994 12,280 10,286
EBITDA margin 42.3% 42.9% 45.4%
Interest coverage (x) 18.6 20.5 13.5
DSCR (x) 6.0 6.3 3.6
Net debt / EBITDA (x) 0.37 0.23 0.54
Net debt / Equity (x) 0.23 0.14 0.30
Interest-bearing debt to Equity (x) 0.39 0.32 0.41
Total liabilities to Equity (x) 0.67 0.64 0.74
Free cash flow to EV (%) 9.5% 10.5% 5.0%
ROE (%) 32.0% 26.2% 18.6%
OPERATIONAL DATA
Subscribers 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
GSM Advance 2,534,700 2,566,300 2,349,300 2,203,500 2,243,100 2,260,300
GSM 1800 92,000 86,800 82,600 82,400 81,400 79,700
Postpaid 2,626,700 2,653,100 2,431,900 2,285,900 2,324,500 2,340,000
Prepaid 18,462,600 20,038,300 20,772,500 21,819,500 22,762,800 23,624,700
Total subscribers
21,089,300 22,691,400 23,204,400 24,105,400 25,087,300 25,964,700
Net additions 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Postpaid 384,300 26,400 -221,200 -146,000 38,600 15,500
Prepaid 1,183,500 1,575,700 734,200 1,047,000 943,300 861,900
Total net additions 1,567,800 1,602,100 513,000 901,000 981,900 877,400
Churn rate (%) 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Postpaid 2.5% 3.9% 4.8% 4.7% 1.9% 1.9%
Prepaid 2.9% 2.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 4.5%
Blended 2.9% 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3%
Subscriber 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
market share
Postpaid 44% 44% 42% 41% 41% n/a
Prepaid 50% 49% 47% 46% 46% n/a
Total 49% 48% 46% 46% 46% n/a
*new ARPU excl.IC 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
(Bt: net all-in)
GSM Advance 811 741 696 744 757 743
GSM 1800 781 773 760 739 730 730
Postpaid 809 742 698 743 756 743
Prepaid 249 234 222 227 231 229
Blended 317 295 274 279 280 276
*new ARPU incl.net IC 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
(Bt: net all-in)
GSM Advance 788 708 665 696 708 688
GSM 1800 781 773 760 739 730 708
Postpaid 787 710 668 698 708 689
Prepaid 263 258 233 238 237 235
Blended 326 312 282 283 282 277
MOU (minutes: 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
outgoing only)
GSM Advance 587 504 511 573 594 574
GSM 1800 412 416 422 426 476 472
Postpaid 580 501 507 568 589 570
Prepaid 228 218 224 239 260 266
Blended 270 252 256 271 290 294
Traffic 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
% outgoing to total 46% 47% 48% 48% 48% 49%
minute
% on-net to total 56% 63% 68% 70% 71% 73%
outgoing minute
QUARTERLY REVIEW OF TARIFF PLANS
Prepaid plans for new subscription
Aow Pai Leoy Bt Bt0.75/minute, 24 hours for call to all networks
0.75/minute SIM price: Bt110, validity: 7 days
SIM price: Bt300 , validity: 30 days
Sawasdee Bt2/minute for on-net, Bt4/minute for off-net
SIM price: Bt110,validity: 1 year
Sawasdee North East Call made in northeast area: Bt1/minute
Call made outside of northeast area: Bt2/minute
on-net, Bt4/minute off-net
SIM price: Bt110,validity: 1 year
Moo-Hou Call made in northeast area :
On-net: Bt2 for the first minute and Bt0.50/minute
thereafter
Off-net: Bt2 for the first minute and Bt1/minute
thereafter
Call made outside of northeast area: Bt2/minute
on-net, Bt4/minute off-net
SIM price: Bt50, validity: Bt100 for 30 days
Sawasdee SIM Mae Yok Bt2 per minute to all networks
SIM price: Bt50, Validity: Bt100 for 30 days
Sawasdee Nan Nan Bt2.50 to all networks
SIM price: Bt50, validity: 1 year
Mini SIM Bt1.50 to all networks
SIM price: Bt20, validity: 180 days
Day SIM 6am-6pm: Bt0.50/minute
6pm-6am: Bt2/minute
SIM price: Bt99, Validity: Bt300 for 30 days
Night SIM 10pm-10am: Bt0.50/minute
10am-10pm: Bt2/minute
SIM price: Bt49, Validity: Bt300 for 30 days
FREEDOM SIM Subscriber can choose only 1 out of 4 options:
1. Short call: Bt1.5/minute
2. Long call: Bt2 on the first minute, Bt1/minute
thereafter
3. On net Call: Bt2 on the first minute,
Bt0.50/minute for call within AIS network
Bt2/minute for call to other networks
4. Economy call 20 hrs: 10pm-6pm: Bt2 on the first
minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter 6pm-10pm:
Bt2/minute
SIM price: Bt50
Prepaid plans for existing subscribers
Flexi Call more than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt5 for the first
minute, Bt0.25/minute thereafter
Call less than 3 minutes, Tariff: Bt3 for the first
minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
Monthly charge: Bt30
Short Call Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
Sabai Call Bt1.50/minute
On-net Call For on-net Bt3 for first minute, Bt0.50/minute
thereafter
For off-net Bt1.5/minute
Long Call Bt4.50 for the first minute, Bt0.50/minute thereafter
Day Call Bt199/month for unlimited on-net between 5am-5pm
5pm-5am & Off-net: Bt2 for the first minute,
Bt1/minute thereafter
Night Call Bt159/month for unlimited on-net between 10pm-10am
10am-10pm& off-net: Bt2 for the first minute,
Bt1/minute thereafter
Sawasdee SIM Mae Yok Bt2 per minute to all networks
Validity: Bt100 for 30 days
TEXT Lover Bt99/month for 500 SMS
Call charge: Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute
thereafter
Postpaid plans for new subscription
GSM Rang 99/month Monthly fee: Bt99
For On-net
Call 1 hour pay only 5 minutes at Bt1.50/minute,
exceed 1 hour tariff at Bt1.5/minute
For off-net
Bt1.50/minute
GSM Rang 159/month Monthly fee: Bt159
For On-net
5am-5pm: Bt1 for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour tariff at
Bt1/minute
5pm-5am: Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute
thereafter
For off-net
Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter
GSM Rang 299/month Monthly fee: Bt299
For On-net
5am-5pm: Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute
thereafter
5pm-5am: Bt1 for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour tariff at
Bt1/minute
For off-net
Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter
GSM FIT 250 Monthly fee: Bt250
Bt1.50/minute to all networks
free call Bt 300, SMS 50 times MMS 10 times GPRS
4 hours
GSM FIT 500 Monthly fee: Bt500
Bt1.50/minute to all networks
free call Bt 850, SMS 100 times MMS 25 times GPRS
10 hours
GSM FIT 750 Monthly fee: Bt750
Bt1.50/minute to all networks
free call Bt 1400, SMS 150 times MMS 50 times GPRS
25 hours
GSM DOUBLE Monthly fee: Bt200
free call Bt 400, Bt1.50/minute to all networks
INTERNET SIM 99 Monthly fee: Bt99
GPRS 30 hours free
Bt3 for the first minute, Bt1/minute thereafter
Postpaid plans for existing subscribers
GSM Rang 299/month Monthly fee: Bt299
For On-net
5am-5pm: Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute
thereafter
5pm-5am: Bt1 for 1 hour, exceed 1 hour tariff at
Bt1/minute
For off-net
Bt2 for the first minute, then Bt1/minute thereafter
GSM Tam Jai Bt250/month, free call 200 minutes
Bt500/month, free call 400 minutes
Bt750/month, free call 600 minutes
Bt1,000/month, free call 800 minutes
Exceed call tariff at Bt1.50/minute
GSM FIT 250 Monthly fee: Bt250
Bt1.50/minute to all networks
free call Bt 300, SMS 50 times MMS 10 times GPRS
4 hours
GSM FIT 500 Monthly fee: Bt500
Bt1.50/minute to all networks
free call Bt 850, SMS 100 times MMS 25 times GPRS
10 hours
ARPU DEFINITION
In accordance with the international practice, we have adjusted ARPU
disclosure to better reflect all revenues generated from the mobile network.
We believe the new definition should provide a more transparent representation
of our reported service revenue and maintain the conservative approach of
recognizing revenue on the net basis. The revenue items included in the
calculation of ARPU figures are based on consolidated revenue according to the
Thai accounting standard. The ARPU definition is outlined accordingly.
ARPU (All-in) exclude IC ARPU (All-in) include IC
Definition Consolidated service revenue Consolidated service revenue
excluding international call excluding international call
revenue from AIN and revenue from AIN divided by
interconnection revenue divided average of subscribers at the
by average of subscribers at the beginning and ending period.
beginning and ending period
= Service revenue - AIN revenue = Service revenue - AIN revenue
- Gross IC revenue - Gross IC + Net IC revenue
----------------------------- -----------------------------
(beg.sub + end.sub) / 2 (beg.sub + end.sub) / 2
Revenue Voice Voice
compositi Value-added service (call Value-added service (call
on management, SMS, MMS, data) management, SMS,MMS, data)
International roaming International roaming
International call via CAT, TOT International call via CAT, TOT
Others Others
Net interconnection revenue
Not include Not include
Net interconnection revenue
International call via AIN International call via AIN
(AIS subsidiary) (AIS subsidiary)
All categories are net of All categories are net of
third-party sharing and third-party sharing and
commission commission
From 1Q08 onward, disclosure of ARPU is based on new definition (net all-in)
only. Disclosure of "ARPU net voice + value-added service" is discontinued.
Glossary of terms and definitions
Operational data
Subscriber
Number of registered SIM at ending period whose status is not defined as churn
Postpaid churn
Subscribers whose payment status is overdue more than 45 days from due date
Prepaid churn
Subscribers who do not make a refill within 37 days after validity expires
Net additions
Change of number of subscribers and ending period from the beginning period
New all-in ARPU excl. IC
Consolidated service revenue excluding international call revenue from AIN
divided by average of subscriber at the beginning and ending period. It
includes voice revenue, value-added services, international roaming,
international call and other revenues such as national roaming, broadband and
transmission
New all-in ARPU incl. IC
Including net interconnection (IC revenue - IC cost)
MOU
Number of billed outgoing minutes generated from voice call including
international call usage and SMS divided by average subscriber
Churn rate
Number of subscriber disconnections in the period divided by the sum of gross
new subscribers in the period and the subscribers at the beginning period
Non-voice (data)
Includes all non-voice services e.g. SMS, MMS, GPRS, ring-back tone,
infotainment and data transmission; excluding call management service e.g.
call forward, conference call, call divert
Financial data
EBITDA margin
Operating profit before depreciation on property and equipment, amortization
of assets under concession, amortization of computer software, amortization of
concession right, goodwill, and allowance for impairment as a percentage to
total revenue
Interest Coverage
Interest expense for the period divided by operating profit for the period
DSCR
Debt service coverage ratio calculated EBITDA after tax divided by repayment
(more)