Management's Discussion and Analysis
14 สิงหาคม 2550
Management's Discussion and Analysis
Overview
For 2Q07, AIS and its subsidiaries ("The Group") reported strong subscriber
growth. The Group added in total of 3.17 million subscribers in the first six
months of 2007, of which 1.60 million were added in 2Q07. This represented a
16% subscriber growth from the end of previous year. Total subscribers at the
end of June 2007 were 22.7 million, comprising of 2.7 million postpaid and 20
million prepaid subscribers.
The strong subscriber growth and relatively higher tariffs for the period
helpedsupport 6.4% year on year (y-o-y) growth in service revenue to Bt19,597
million in 2Q07 from Bt18,422 million in 2Q06. Since the end of March 2007,
the Group had continue raising price for prepaid new subscribers, setting
tariffs on a per-minute basis and discontinued per-call packages offered last
year. On a quarter on quarter (q-o-q) basis, service revenues continued to
increase slightly 0.5% despite second quarter is seasonally weak compared
to the first quarter.
Sales revenues were Bt3,082 million, a fall of 24.6% y-o-y and 23.1% q-o-q
from Bt4,086 million in 2Q06 and Bt4,006 million in 1Q07 due to lower handset
unit sales as well as lower average handset selling prices. However, this
would not have material impact to company's bottom line since sales margin
were normally thin and contributed marginally to the consolidated net profit.
As a result, total revenues in 2Q07 were relatively stable at Bt22,678 million
or 0.8% growth y-o-y from Bt22,508 million in 2Q06 but declined 3.5% q-o-q
over 1Q07.
Total cost dropped 1.7% y-o-y to Bt13,728 million in 2Q07 due to lower cost of
sales which dropped 21.6% y-o-y following lower sales revenue, while concession
fee increased 6.4% y-o-y in proportion of service revenue growth and cost of
service grew 4.5% y-o-y from higher amortization. Amortization cost started
to pick up 6% q-o-q in this quarter given a significant amount of network
investment last year and a shortening concession life.
SG&A expenses increased 29% y-o-y and 5.6% q-o-q to Bt3,301 million due to
higher marketing expenses, bad debt provision and staff costs. Marketing
expenses as a percentage to total revenue was stable q-o-q at 3.8% in 2Q07 and
was within a 4% budget for the full year 2007. Bad debt expenses as a
percentage to total postpaid revenues increased in 2Q07 to 8.1%, rose from
6.6% in 1Q07 and 0.6% in 2Q06 due to aggressive postpaid subscriber
acquisition since 3Q06 and the Group's conservative provisioning policy.
Quality of account receivables remained high with over 90% of gross account
receivable aging are current and due less than 3 months. For 2Q07, net profit
were Bt3,663 million declined 11.2% y-o-y from Bt4,126 million in 2Q06 and
8.1% q-o-q from Bt3,984 million in 1Q07.
For the first six-month period of 2007 (1H07), the Group generated total
revenues of Bt46,177 million, a 2.2% drop from Bt47,196 million in 1H06. Net
profit was Bt7,647 million, declined 18.8% from Bt9,415 million in 1H06 from
lower service and sales revenue as well as increased SG&A and interest expense.
As at end of June 2007, the Group had total borrowings of Bt31,321 million
(including swap contract payable), an increase of Bt8,353 million from the end
of June 2006. This increase was for the group to continue network investment to
maintain strong position in the market while maintaining dividend payment to
shareholders. Despite of debt increase, capital structure remained strong with
net debt to equity of 30% and total liabilities to equity of 74%.
For 1H07, the Group generated Bt17,879 million of operating cash flow, together
with the increased debt, helped support total capex of Bt9,663 million
compared to a full year estimate of Bt18,000 million, as well as cash dividend
for the total amount of Bt9,753 million paid on 10 May 2007, implying a
dividend per share of Bt3.30.
Financial summary
2Q07 2Q06 % 1Q07 %
(Bt million) change change
y-o-y q-o-q
Service revenue 19,597 18,422 6.4% 19,493 0.5%
Sales revenue 3,082 4,086 (24.6%) 4,006 (23.1%)
Total revenue 22,678 22,508 0.8% 23,499 (3.5%)
Total cost 13,728 13,968 (1.7%) 14,293 (4.0%)
Gross profit 8,950 8,540 4.8% 9,206 (2.8%)
SG&A 3,301 2,559 29.0% 3,126 5.6%
Earnings before 5,795 6,246 (7.2%) 6,270 (7.6%)
interest and tax
Net profit 3,663 4,126 (11.2%) 3,984 (8.1%)
1H07 1H06 % change
(6-mths) (6-mths) y-o-y
Service revenue 39,089 39,689 (1.5%)
Sales revenue 7,087 7,507 (5.6%)
Total revenue 46,177 47,196 (2.2%)
Total cost 28,020 28,091 (0.2%)
Gross profit 18,156 19,106 (5.0%)
SG&A 6,427 5,376 19.6%
Earnings before 12,064 14,282 (15.5%)
interest and tax
Net profit 7,647 9,415 (18.8%)
Revenues & Profitability
Total Revenue
In 2Q07, total revenues consist of (1) 86.4% service revenues and rentals (2)
13.6% sales of handsets and SIM cards. Total revenues in 2Q07 were Bt22,678
million, increased 0.8% y-o-y from Bt22,508 million in 2Q06 due to higher
service revenue but declined 3.5% q-o-q from Bt23,499 million in 1Q07 due to
lower sales revenue.
(1) Service revenues in 2Q07 increased 6.4% y-o-y to Bt19,597 million, from
Bt18,422 million in 2Q06, based on strong subscriber growth and relatively
higherm tariffs for the period. Since the end of March 2007, the Group had
continued raising the price for prepaid new subscribers, setting the tariff
on a per-minute basis and discontinued a per-call basis packages offered
during 2Q06. As a result, on a q-o-q basis, service revenues were
relatively flat (+0.5%) despite that service revenues in the second
quarter are usually weak due to seasonality. For 1H07, service revenue
were Bt39,089 million, decreased 1.5% from Bt39,689 million in 1H06.
(2) Sales revenue declined 24.6% y-o-y and 23.1% q-o-q to Bt3,082 million in
2Q07 from both lower units sales of handset and falling average selling
prices. For 1H07, sales revenues were Bt7,087 million, decreased 5.6%
from Bt7,507 million in 1H06.
Total Cost
Total cost comprises of (1) cost of services and equipment rentals, (2)
concession fee, and (3) cost of sales. For the 2Q07, the Group incurred total
cost of Bt13,728 million, a fall of 1.7% y-o-y and 4.0% q-o-q due to lower
cost of sales.
(1) Cost of services and equipment rentals in 2Q07 were Bt6,020 million,
increased 4.5% y-o-y and 3.7% q-o-q from higher amortization cost,
utilities and other network related expenses. Amortization cost on asset
under concession started to pick up 6% q-o-q in this quarter following a
large spending on network investment last year and shortening concession
life.
(2) Concession fee were Bt 4,838 million in 2Q07, increased 6.4% y-o-y and
0.5% q-o-q in proportion of higher service revenue. Concession fee and
excise tax as percentage of service revenue remains the same at 24.7%
in 2Q07, compared to that of 2Q06 and 1Q07.
(3) Cost of sales in 2Q07 was Bt 2,871 million, decreased 21.6% y-o-y and
21.9% q-o-q due to lower unit of handset sales and lower average handset
selling price.Sales margin continued to decline to 6.9% in 2Q07 compared
to 10.4% in 2Q06 and 8.2% in 1Q07; this usually fluctuates from quarter
to quarter depending on different margins from different handset models
sold in each period.
For 1H07, total cost was relatively flat at Bt28,020 million, compared to
Bt28,091 million in 1H06.
Selling and administrative expenses (SG&A)
The group incurred SG&A expenses of Bt3,301 million in 2Q07 or 14.6% of
total revenue compared to Bt2,559 million in 2Q06 or 11.4% of total revenue.
The y-o-y increase was a result of higher bad debt provision, staff cost,
and marketing spending. Comparing q-o-q, SG&A also rose 5.6% from Bt3,126
million in 1Q07 or 13.3% of total revenue mainly from higher bad debt
provision, operating expense and staff cost.
As the group has been launching a number of low-end postpaid packages
(mostly at Bt299/month) since 3Q06, postpaid subscribers had since increased
instead of falling trend during the past two years. As a result, bad debt
provision for the quarter rose to Bt440 million or 8.1% of postpaid revenues
from Bt31 million or 0.6% in 2Q06 and Bt363 million or 6.6% in 1Q07. However,
quality of account receivables remained high given over 90% of gross account
receivable aging fell under 3 months overdue and the provision covered more
than amount overdue of over 3 months.
Marketing spending for the quarter was Bt863 million or 3.8% of total revenue,
increased from the same quarter last year of Bt737 million or 3.3% of total
revenue as most of marketing spending last year was pushed toward the second
half of the year. However, spending was more evenly on q-o-q basis with a
slight decline from Bt874 million in 1Q07 or 3.7% of total revenue.
Competitive landscape in 1H07 was much different from 1H06 when marketing
activities slowed down and subscriber growth was relatively much smaller. As a
result, SG&A expenses for 1H07 rose 19.6% y-o-y from the increase in bad debt
and marketing spending. However, marketing spending in 1H07 of 3.8% of total
revenue remained within 4% budget for the full year 2007.
Interest expense
The group increased total outstanding debt to Bt31,321 million (including
swap payable) from Bt22,968 million in 2Q06 in order to continue network
investment to maintain strong position in the market while maintain dividend
payment to shareholders. Interest expense for the period, as a result,
increased 27.7% y-o-y to Bt417 million from Bt327 million in 2Q06. Compared to
the previous quarter, interest expense slightly declined 6.8% q-o-q from
Bt448 million in 1Q07.
For 1H07, interest expense increased 32% to Bt865 million from Bt655 million in
1H06 from higher outstanding debt.
Of the total borrowings, majority had fixed interest rate whereas floated rate
debt represented only 21% of total amount as of 2Q07. The group had weighted
average interest rate of 5.33% per annum.
Net Profit
Despite of improving service revenue y-o-y, SG&A and interest expense increased
y-o-y, as a result, net profit for the quarter of Bt3,663 million decline
11.2% from Bt4,126 million in 2Q06. Comparing q-o-q, net profit decline 8.1%
from Bt3,984 million in 1Q07 from higher amortization and increased SG&A
expenses.
For the six month period, net profit was Bt7,647 million declined 18.8% y-o-y
from Bt9,415 million from lower service and sales revenue, higher marketing
spending, bad debt provision and interest expense.
Liquidity
As of 30 June 2007, current ratio declined to 65% from 74% as of 31 December
2006 due to less cash outstanding from dividend payment during 2Q07.
Current assets
The current assets as of 30 June 2007 were Bt 19,842 million, declined 13.3%
from Bt22,893 million at the end of 4Q06 mainly from less cash and cash
equivalents.
30 June 2007 31 December 2006
Million % Total Million % Total
Baht assets Baht assets
Cash and cash equivalents 8,935 6.8% 12,742 9.5%
Trade receivables 5,120 3.9% 4,898 3.6%
Inventories for network spare part 1,908 1.5% 2,055 1.5%
Other current assets 3,878 3.0% 3,197 2.4%
Total current assets 19,842 15.1% 22,893 17.0%
Current liabilities
Current liabilities slightly decreased to Bt30,662 million from Bt 31,039
million at the end of 2006 as there was less portion of long-term debt due
in 1 year.
30 June 2007 31 December 2006
Million % Total Million % Total
Baht Liabilities Baht Liabilities
Short term loans 3,916 7.0% 1,000 1.8%
Trade payable 5,113 9.2% 5,760 10.2%
Portion of long-term debt 2,509 4.5% 6,507 11.5%
due in 1 year
Concession right payable, accrued 9,381 16.9% 7,155 12.6%
concession fee and excise tax
Unearned income 3,516 6.3% 3,659 6.5%
Income tax payable 3,080 5.5% 2,963 5.2%
Other current liabilities 3,147 5.7% 3,994 7.0%
Total current liabilities 30,662 55.2% 31,039 54.7%
Assets
Total assets as of 30 June 2007 was Bt131,126 million, decreased from Bt
134,301 million as of 31 December 2006 as a result of lower current asset.
Fixed assets including Property Plant and Equipment and assets under
concession represented 68% of total assets.
30 June 2007 31 December 2006
Million % of Million % of
Baht Total Baht Total
assets Assets
Current assets 19,842 15.1% 22,893 17.0%
Property, plant and equipment,net 8,260 6.3% 7,797 5.8%
Asset under concession agreement,net 80,883 61.7% 81,096 60.4%
Intangible assets 11,457 8.7% 12,197 9.1%
Deferred tax assets 10,007 7.6% 9,763 7.3%
Other non-current assets 677 0.5% 555 0.4%
Total assets 131,126 100% 134,301 100%
Capital structure
The Group's capital structure remained strong with debt to equity ratio at 41%
as of 30 June 2007. Net debt to equity (Net debt = total debentures and
borrowings minus cash) was 30% slightly increased from 26% as of 31 December
2006.
30 June 2007 31 December 2006
Total liabilities to equity 74% 73%
Debt to equity 41% 43%
Net debt to equity 30% 26%
Debentures and Loans
As of 30 June 2007, total debentures and borrowings were Bt31,321 million,
declined from Bt33,149 million at the end of 4Q06. The decline was mainly from
retirement of Bt4,750 million of long-term debentures during the first half of
2007, despite that the Group had increased its short-term borrowing to Bt3,916
million from Bt1,000 million at the end of December 2006.
30 June 2007 31 December 2006
Million % Total Million % Total
Baht Liabilities Baht Liabilities
Short term borrowing 3,916 7.0% 1,000 1.8%
Portion of long-term debt 2,509 4.5% 6,507 11.5%
due in 1 year
Long-term debt 24,896* 44.8% 25,642* 45.2%
Total debts 31,321 56.4% 33,149 58.5%
* including swap contract payable incurred from JPY-denominated syndicated
loan which was swapped into Thai Baht in total of Baht 9,485 million
Shareholders' equity
The Group's shareholder's equity was Bt75,556 million as of 30 June 2007
compared to Bt77,599 million as of 31 December 2006 a slight decline due to
dividend payment in 2Q07.
Cash Flow
For the six-month period, the Group generated Bt17,879 million of cash flow
from operations (after interest, tax, and changes in working capital) and
raised another Bt2,893 million in short-term loan. Of this amount, the group
spent Bt9,663 million on capital expenditures, repaid Bt4,760 million of
long-term debentures and finance lease, and paid Bt9,753 million in dividend.
As a result, the group had net decrease in cash of Bt3,368 million for the
period.
Significant Event
Pursuant to the letter of the Ministry of Information and Communication
Technology to the Council of State requesting opinion on whether the
amendments or supplements to the agreement between TOT Public Company Limited
who is the Telephone Organization of Thailand at that time ("TOT") and Advance
Info Service Public Company Limited after the enforcement of the Act on
Private Participation in State Undertaking, B.E. 2535 are legitimately
effected and in case those amendments or supplements to the Agreement are not
legitimately effected according to such Act, what guidelines TOT should
implement.
The Council of State was of the opinion by its Memorandum of the Council of
State no. 291/2550 on Enforcement of the Act on Private Participation in State
Undertaking, B.E. 2535 (in the case of the Agreement Permitting Undertaking of
Cellular Mobile Telephone Services between TOT Public Company Limited and
Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited) that *"... since TOT being the
contracting party in this case acted on behalf of the State by virtue of the
authority and duty pursuant to Telephone Organization of Thailand Act, the
executed Agreement thus represents the agreement between the State and the
private sector in order to authorise the private sector to provide public
services to the public on behalf of the State. The State therefore is
obligated to perform according to those stipulated in that Agreement.
However, since the amendments to the Agreement upon which the consultation is
being sought were not legitimately carried out according to the Act on Private
Participation in State Undertaking, B.E. 2535 which was in force at the time of
effecting those amendments because those amendments had not been proposed
for the consideration of the Coordination committee according to Section 22 and
not forwarded to the Cabinet, being the organ charged with the authority to
approve of the amendments to the Agreement pursuant to the Act as aforesaid,
the amendments made to the Agreement with TOT as the contracting party were
therefore carried out without legal authority. However, the procedures to
amend the Agreement represent administrative juristic acts which are capable
of being separated from the amendments to the Agreement already effected and
those amendments to the Agreement are still in force so long as they are not
rescinded or extinguished by statute of limitation or by other causes. In case
the Cabinet, vested with the authority under the law and having considered the
causes for the rescission, the impact, and the propriety on the basis of the
State's and the public interest, is of the opinion that the illegitimate
procedures have resulted in damage that warrants rescinding the amendments to
the Agreement already effected, the Cabinet may legitimately rescind such
amendments to the Agreement. However, if the Cabinet, upon having considered
the same, deems it justified, with regard to the State's or the public
interest and the continuity of providing public services, the Cabinet may
exercise its discretion to grant approval for the procedures to further amend
the Agreement, as appropriate, with the unit owning the project and the
Coordination committee pursuant to Section 22 being the parties to submit the
facts, justifications, and opinion for the consideration of the Cabinet".
*The above clauses in "..." represent some parts of the Memorandum of the
Council of State no. 291/2550 translation, provided by the Company's legal
advisor. The full text Memorandum of the Council of State is available only
in Thai language.